Surprisingly, behind this crypto wave, one can see the "open conspiracy" of the Trump administration. He decisively vetoed the Federal Reserve's plan to issue CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) while being lenient towards stablecoins issued by private institutions. This way, he could claim "decentralization" and "technological neutrality", avoiding excessive political controversy, while subtly strengthening the dollar's global penetration. Rather than causing concerns or backlash with government digital currency, it's better to let the market drive the dollar's digitization, allowing users worldwide to willingly invest in this new dollar ecosystem.
Most ironically, some regions or individuals previously sanctioned by the United States are sometimes bypassing financial blockades using these stablecoins. Some Russian merchants exchange rubles for USDT through over-the-counter trading, completing cross-border payments or asset transfers via blockchain. Traditional banking channels might be "cut off" by SWIFT, but blockchain transfers remain unobstructed. Thus, under the banner of "decentralization", the dollar's hegemony has not been weakened but has quietly expanded in the world of code.
II. Three Principles of Crypto Dollar Hegemony
1. Network Effect: Usage Breeds Dependence
Imagine opening a DeFi platform to mortgage your tokens for earnings. Most protocols primarily accept dollar stablecoins like USDC and USDT—just as people prefer carrying dollars during international travel. Once you choose this path, you're essentially "locked" into the dollar ecosystem: whether lending, paying, or managing finances, dollar stablecoins become the most convenient and widely accepted "circulation tool".
More interestingly, dollar transactions on blockchain are often not directly interfered with by traditional monetary policies. Even if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, on-chain funds can still move freely and quickly. This snowball-like network effect makes dollars the "standard configuration" in the crypto world—the US doesn't need to negotiate with other countries first; by allowing companies like Circle (USDC issuer) to deploy smart contracts across public chains, dollars naturally become the "unified language" in the code world. Some scholars call this "protocol imperialism": when everyone becomes accustomed to using dollar stablecoins for collateral, payment, or settlement, decentralized blockchains quietly expand the dollar's sphere of influence.
2. Decoupling and Reconstruction: Weakening Traditional Control
Surprisingly, stablecoins seem to "bypass" the United States' most powerful financial weapon—the SWIFT system. Previously, the US could freeze a country's global transaction channels by revoking its SWIFT access; on blockchain, peer-to-peer transfers can complete cross-border payments without SWIFT. Some predict that by 2024, approximately 67% of cross-border on-chain payments will use dollar stablecoins, subtly weakening US control over fund flows.
But the story isn't that simple. No matter how "decentralized", these stablecoins are still anchored to the dollar's credit: as long as the Federal Reserve is willing to adjust interest rates, global capital costs will still be influenced. Moreover, stablecoin-issuing private institutions are not truly independent from the US legal system—in 2023, Tether froze $870 million in funds related to North Korea upon US official request. This action sufficiently proves that blockchain freedom cannot escape the US's substantive control over "dollar credit". If the US wants to "draw its sword", stablecoins can still become a means to strike opponents.
3. Risk Transfer: Private Sector's Firewall
Another noteworthy phenomenon is that institutions like Tether (USDT's issuer) are often registered in offshore regions. For the US, this creates a "firewall" between regulation and responsibility: on one hand, the US can share the dividends from stablecoin global expansion; on the other hand, if a compliance or credit crisis erupts, US authorities can immediately distance themselves, claiming it's a private institution's violation with no direct government association.
Simultaneously, many individuals or enterprises unable to legally obtain dollars can only use stablecoin channels for cross-border payments or financing. These entities often pay far higher funding costs, ranging from 4% to 11%, significantly higher than banks' typical 1.5% fixed deposit rate. Figuratively, this is a hidden "channel tax" for those who cannot enter through the main gate. From the US perspective, this not only maintains the dollar's penetration in global trade and investment but also allows shifting responsibility to private institutions at critical moments—truly "killing two birds with one stone".
III. Three Paths to Escape the Crypto Dollar Trap
1. Issuing Sovereign Stablecoins: Competing for On-Chain Pricing Rights
To secure a "place" in the blockchain world for national currency, the primary step is launching a sovereign stablecoin. Singapore's XSGD and Indonesia's IDRT have already saved considerable cross-border payment costs, while China's digital yuan has directly collaborated with Middle Eastern countries in oil payments through projects like "mBridge", gradually reducing dollar dependence.
The key to this approach is maintaining sufficiently transparent reserves and strict regulation, otherwise risking repeating some countries' stablecoin failures of "insufficient reserves and capital flight". Only when a country or region's sovereign stablecoin can be widely used in cross-border trade, retail payments, and DeFi protocols can it truly form pricing influence in the blockchain ecosystem.
2. Constructing Regional Digital Currency Alliances: Collective Dismantling of Network Effects
Single-handed efforts often struggle against the dollar's strong blockchain penetration, so countries or regions need to collaborate in creating regional digital currency alliances. Southeast Asia is attempting to promote "payment interconnection", allowing member countries to settle directly using local stablecoins, aiming to replace a certain percentage of SWIFT channels in several years; Latin America is also testing "digital currency corridors", having already achieved billions of dollars in cross-border transactions.
These joint actions can create a network effect within the region strong enough to challenge dollar stablecoins, gradually making local or regional currencies the preferred choice for commercial exchanges. However, to survive long-term, parties must unify technical standards, improve regulatory frameworks, and prevent dollar stablecoins' "reverse penetration".
3. Reconstructing International Monetary Order: From Gold to Multipolar Anchors
As the petrodollar faces increasing challenges, the international community is seeking new "anchors". Increasing gold reserves is one strategy, with many countries pushing gold reserves to historical highs; some also propose a potential future monetary system backed by high-tech resources like chips or rare earth elements. However, whether new anchoring models can truly break the dollar's dominant position depends on the evolution of the international financial landscape.
Although the dollar's proportion in global reserve currencies continues to decline, truly achieving diversification requires all parties to establish mature settlement networks, mutual trust mechanisms, and pricing benchmarks. If handled improperly, the US might introduce new variants like "tech dollars", continuing to dominate game rules through innovative means in the next financial competition. These "tech dollars" might include using AI, big data, and smart contracts to enhance dollar payment and settlement capabilities, even promoting a "decentralized but regulated" dollar on-chain ecosystem.
Conclusion: Hegemony Does Not Die, It Only Transforms
From the gold of Fort Knox to the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, and now to smart contracts on the blockchain, the United States has always been adept at "binding key resources of the era" and pushing the dollar globally in a seemingly "market-driven" way.Gold Dollarwas backed by scarce metals, Petrodollarseized the lifeline of the industrial age, and now the Crypto Dollarviews the "blockchain ecosystem" as the next core resource: it uses decentralized technology and cross-border transaction efficiency to penetrate almost every corner of the chain.
Some may question why the dollar still dominates the crypto world that advocates "decentralization". The logic behind this is that the dollar's network effect and trust foundation remain irreplaceable, making it the "default monetary language" on the chain. Once global users accept dollar stablecoins, they are essentially incorporated into an "expanded" version of the US financial system, which is the so-called "soft colonization": without force or direct pressure, just by providing irresistible services and liquidity, the world can be "captured" by the dollar system unknowingly.
For other countries, this is both a crisis and an opportunity. Sovereign stablecoins, regional digital alliances, technological and institutional firewalls, and explorations of anchoring new resources may help them gain greater monetary autonomy. After all, "marketization" does not equal fairness, the core is still who can control key resources and dominate rule-making. In this quiet monetary war, to avoid being passively involved, one must thoroughly understand the rules of the game and make multi-dimensional layouts. As the Governor of Bank Indonesia said: "The current monetary sovereignty contest has shifted from gold to code - whoever controls chain liquidity will gain an advantage in the global financial order."
