Bitcoin (BTC) recently set a new all-time high of $111,970 (approximately 153.3 million won), creating an optimistic market atmosphere, but analysts suggest that it remains uncertain whether this upward trend can continue into the third quarter.
Analysts from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated in a report released on the 28th that "the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin's recent breakthrough was a short-term peak or the prelude to a strong rise in the third quarter".
The view is that it is still too early to confirm the long-term trend, even if Bitcoin rises further. Instead, price adjustments or range-bound trading could be a *healthy correction* for the next stage of growth. Analysts explained that "a slight adjustment or a prolonged sideways correction is a healthy flow in itself and can provide a more sustainable basis for future growth".
The pattern of Bitcoin consolidating or adjusting after breaking its all-time high has been repeated in the past. After reaching a peak of $73,679 (approximately 101 million won) in March 2024, it fluctuated within a range of about $20,000 before finding direction again shortly after Trump's confirmed victory in the US presidential election in November.
Meanwhile, the third quarter has statistically been the least favorable period for Bitcoin. According to market data platform CoinGlass, the average return of Bitcoin in the third quarter over the past 11 years was only 6.03%. This is a significant difference compared to the average return of 27.25% in the second quarter.
While Bitcoin's price is again raising expectations by setting a new all-time high, analysts are gaining traction with the view that investors need to approach with caution, considering the potential for short-term overheating and seasonal return patterns.
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