Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:
Today, let's talk about James, who's been very popular in the market recently. His marketing is indeed on fire. A few days ago, he was just 100U away from liquidation. He has 5,782 BTC with an average price of 110,084, liquidation at 107,320, with a total market value of $620 million, and is currently experiencing an unrealized loss of nearly $10 million.
These days, whether for self-promotion, creating hype, or pushing his own project, he has maximized his exposure and achieved his goals. Master Chen guesses that people might be wondering if they can follow his trades.
You're mistaken. Ordinary retail investors simply can't play at his level. You can't go long with him, nor short against him, and don't naively think you can profit by trading against him.
Don't think the market is targeting James. In fact, the market never targets anyone, but it won't let anyone off either. It's like a hacker - if you have a liquidation price, you're waiting to be cleared out, it's just a matter of time. To survive, having money isn't enough.
Look at MicroStrategy, buying more BTC for $427 million. If you're short, aren't you scared now? I say, nonsense! Last week, if he hadn't bought 4,000 coins, how would BTC break through 110k? But don't forget, he's not a money printer, his funds are limited and will eventually run out.
He can still keep buying at higher prices because it's still a bull market and he can use US stock profits to add positions. But if the macro environment changes one day, nothing can save him, and he'll still blow up.
Moreover, as it goes higher, the buying volume needs to be larger. Who can sustain that? This is essentially no different from a Ponzi scheme - the later you come in, the higher the risk. In the medium-term trend, there will always be a good long/short point.
For example, what if Japan suddenly raises interest rates one day, and BTC directly drops for two months straight - do you believe it? The market won't rise forever, and corrections must happen.
Back to the market, BTC's daily structure is still relatively stable, and the upward trend hasn't been broken. The key levels are 102 to 102.5k. If it truly breaks below this, the daily structure will be destroyed, and we'll need to look lower. But if it holds, it'll continue oscillating at the top, with targets still looking towards new highs.
The current core resistance is 110k. Breaking above means a new peak, failing to hold means testing the 102k area. Tuesday and Wednesday have light news, with the focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 2 AM on Thursday.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
Second Resistance: 110000
First Resistance: 109100
Support Levels Reference:
Second Support: 107700
First Support: 106800
Today's Recommendation:
After yesterday's close, the uptrend line was supported, with a short-term rebound reaching a high of 110.5K before pulling back. If prices break below the current uptrend line and support levels, be prepared to change strategy.
Once the trend line is broken, it means the trend might reverse, requiring a new trading approach. From the 1-hour timeframe, you can see a rebound after breaking the trend line, but the uptrend line quickly becomes resistance. Prices continue to decline, and this trend line breach can form an N-shaped downward structure.
Currently, 109100 can be seen as strong resistance. If a secondary rebound occurs in this area with decreasing highs, a new round of correction may be approaching. For short-term long positions, consider taking profits in batches near this resistance.
To quickly break resistance, a large green candle with volume is needed. However, without significant positive news, the probability of such a green candle is small.
Therefore, Master Chen suggests taking profits in stages at 109100 and 110000 during a slow price increase and gradually expanding trading volume.
107700 is a short-term critical support, coinciding with the 200-day moving average and uptrend line, offering a good risk-reward entry point. If broken, look towards the second support at 106800.
As the overall trend remains long, maintain a long perspective. Look for bottoming and rebound points in the correction. If the trend line is completely breached, be cautious of the N-shaped decline continuing, and consider quickly shorting or staying on the sidelines.
Despite recent short-term pullbacks, the upward trend from a larger timeframe remains unchanged. Today, focus on selling pressure and volume changes in the 109000-110000 range. If volume decreases during a pullback, follow the trend; if volume increases during a breakthrough, go long.
5.27 Master Chen's Swing Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: 106500-106800 area, batch entry. Target: 109100-109800
Short Entry Reference: Not recommended at this time
If you truly want to learn from a blogger, you must follow consistently, not make conclusions after seeing a few market movements. This market is full of performative players who post long screenshots today and short summaries tomorrow, seemingly "always catching tops and bottoms" but actually just hindsight experts. Truly worth-following bloggers will have consistent, self-coherent, and scrutiny-withstanding trading logic, not jumping on the bandwagon when the market moves. Don't be fooled by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots. Long-term observation and deep understanding are key to distinguishing thinkers from dreamers!
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