Bit coin continued to break historical highs last week, reaching up to $111,963 on the 23rd, demonstrating strong momentum in the global market. Against this background, cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex released an analysis report on the 26th, indicating that this rise is not due to speculative overheating, but driven by structural buying. The report stated:
After reaching a historical high in January, Bit coin dropped 32%, then rebounded over 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880, and is currently in a healthy consolidation phase.
Strong ETF fund inflows, active spot market participation, and positive net realized capital growth have driven structural market buying, rather than speculative overheating.
Bit coin's Role is Transforming
Bitfinex further noted that Bit coin's resilience highlights its role is changing, becoming a macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset, with trading dynamics increasingly aligned with global liquidity trends, rather than purely driven by retail sentiment:
Even with rising macro risk aversion and news of potential 50% tariffs on European imports by the US, Bit coin remained stable, successfully resolving excessive leverage and absorbing some profit-taking, with no significant market collapse.
Additionally, Japanese company Metaplanet's accumulation of $104 million in Bit coin, and Michigan's crypto-friendly legislation further verify the increasing institutional and policy-level support for digital assets.
However, Bitfinex also warns investors that as Bit coin's price continues to rise, profit-taking pressure is increasing. The report indicates that over the past month, short-term holders have realized over $11.4 billion in profits, which could translate into market pressure in the short term.
Bitfinex emphasizes that whether Bit coin can continue consolidating above the short-term holder cost basis (around $95,000) will be key to determining future market direction. The report further analyzes that ETF buying power, low volatility, and spot premium indicate the market is maturing, and Bit coin may continue rising once the macro environment becomes clearer. The next few weeks will determine whether this breakthrough is a local high point or a prelude to a more aggressive rise in the third quarter.
Overall Economic Observation
In terms of overall economy, Bitfinex's report points out that the US is facing increasing financial pressure, with long-term government bond yields surging, and the US dollar weakening due to credit rating downgrades, rising debt, and impending tariffs. Investor confidence is shaken, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields breaking 4.5% and 5% respectively, reflecting market concerns about US fiscal discipline and inflation risks.
The steepening of the 30-year and 10-year bond yield curve, traditionally seen as an economic growth signal, now reflects fear of long-term risks rather than optimism. As foreign demand weakens and the Fed's bond market support diminishes, the market is pricing in a new era of higher interest rates and volatility, with the bond market no longer just reacting to headlines but warning of structural pricing changes in risk.
Despite this, Bitfinex again emphasizes that institutional adoption and regulatory momentum are moving in sync. Listed companies Strategy, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific have collectively purchased over 8,800 Bit coins, strengthening Bit coin's position as a corporate strategic reserve asset. Among them, Strategy already holds over 2.7% of the total Bit coin supply, highlighting the trend of companies viewing Bit coin as a long-term reserve during economic uncertainty.
Further Reading: Software Not Selling, Becoming Legendary with Bit coin! Decoding MicroStrategy Strategy and Michael Saylor's Financial Magic
