After the article was published on Friday, many readers shared their views on long-term holding. It can be felt that many readers have some resistance to this approach, or even if they accept it, they may make some compromises in practice.
I understand this psychology very well.
In fact, my thoughts on long-term holding were not sudden or just developed today, but gradually formed after a period of reflection and comparison.
Actually, quite early on (around 2017-2018), I heard some veteran players in the ecosystem suggest holding Bitcoin without moving.
However, at that time, facing such a volatile asset, I thought holding without moving was a waste of resources and opportunities, and that such an approach would have low capital utilization efficiency.
At that time, I was slightly more cautious: although I also practiced high selling and low buying, the funds I sold from Bitcoin would not be used to buy other assets, but would be used to buy Bitcoin again in the future. Plus, I was quite lucky then, and could usually buy back at a low price after selling high. Therefore, through such operations, I did accumulate more Bitcoin.
So at that time, I was very disdainful of holding without moving.
But in the past two years, after reading more investment experiences from senior investors, I increasingly felt that the previous high selling and low buying experiences were just luck and unsustainable.
In the previous bull market, my fixed selling of Bitcoin and Ethereum began after they fell 20% from their highs.
Many readers remember that the previous bull market was essentially a Double Top, with the second peak being the true top of the entire bull market. After the first top, the 5.19 crash followed.
In the 5.19 crash, both Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped more than 20%. According to my fixed selling standard at the time, I should have started fixed selling after the 5.19 crash.
The reason I didn't do so was that I was lucky to participate in the second major innovation of the Ethereum ecosystem, which was the rise of Non-Fungible Token (NFT), and at that time, the NFT ecosystem was just emerging but showed strong potential. So I was quite confident that the bull market should continue and was not over.
But if I hadn't been so lucky back then, not participating when the NFT potential first appeared, or even if I had participated but didn't sense that strong potential, I might have thought the crypto ecosystem's market had ended after the 5.19 crash and started fixed selling as planned.
In that case, how would I have felt facing the second major market trend that was about to come? It's hard to imagine.
Similarly, when the second top arrived and dropped 20%, after I started fixed selling, what if the Ethereum ecosystem produced a third innovation leading to a third top? It's also hard to imagine.
Looking back now and reviewing various possible scenarios, I feel that if the funds for heavy positions are idle and do not affect life, as long as the market is not too crazy, the best method is actually long-term holding, as long as the heavily held varieties have potential and a future.
The biggest advantage of this method is not being left behind; the biggest disadvantage is simply taking time and being somewhat torturous, making the holder endure loneliness and psychological impacts from market downturns.
But for crypto assets, a type of asset that appears once in hundreds or thousands of years and changes human financial form, being left behind is the biggest risk, misfortune, and pain.
Compared to this risk, misfortune, and pain, that little inner loneliness is nothing.
Some readers ask if I would still do fixed investment and fixed selling now?
For Bitcoin and Ethereum, fixed investment will definitely continue.
For Bitcoin and Ethereum's fixed selling, probably not.
I might sell, but only when prices are extremely ridiculous - so ridiculous that various media cannot help but follow the hype and report, and even people outside my circle start inquiring about buying.
I might also not sell, and even if prices are slightly high, as long as they're not too crazy, I may not sell at all.
