Article source: Words Beyond Words
1. How long will this stage of market trend continue?
A few days ago, when discussing the bull market topic, we mentioned in the article: From a longer time perspective, such as starting from the third quarter of this year, we might experience a new decline or consolidation trend.
Looking at some on-chain data currently, this trend seems to be showing some signs. For instance, by observing the Bitcoin Supply LTH and STH indicators, we can find that as Bitcoin's price recently began to rise again, STH (short-term holders, investors holding Bitcoin assets for less than 155 days) are no longer enthusiastic about buying (hoarding) Bitcoin, but instead continue to sell their Bitcoin. As shown in the image below.
Contrary to STH Supply, LTH Supply continues to grow periodically. This Bitcoin price increase is likely mainly driven by whales (including institutions). However, as Bitcoin's price continues to rise, LTH demand will typically start to slow down, which will also lead to a return of STH sentiment. But often at this point, potential selling pressure in the market will rise again, which is a typical signal that Bitcoin's price is approaching the top of a periodic cycle.
Looking at the Bitcoin Realized Price indicator, the current STH actual cost price is around $94,600, as shown in the image below.
While the LTH (long-term holders) average actual cost price is around $33,000, as shown in the image below.
This means that around $94,600 is an important support level for the short term, but relative to LTH, the current price still seems to have considerable room. The behavior of STH and LTH investors in the current market stage appears to have quite obvious differences.
In short, the current market still has some upward potential (long-term holders continue to buy and accumulate), and we remain bullish on the trend. However, if calculated (estimated) by time, we might need to maintain a relatively cautious attitude in the third quarter of this year, and we cannot rule out a potential significant market correction in the fourth quarter (we will provide a scenario below).
2. Market "Scenario" for the Second Half of This Year
We previously shared our expectation for Bitcoin's target in this bull market cycle at $100,000-$120,000, as shown in the image below. From the current results, this target has been achieved, and reaching or breaking $120,000 in June also seems possible.
But we have also repeatedly shared a view that market opportunities often exist simultaneously with risks.
Continuing to look at the Supply LTH and STH indicators, if Bitcoin's price can create a new high and break $120,000 in June, short-term holders might continue to FOMO, while long-term holders might take the opportunity to start selling Bitcoin again.
Combining some macro factors, the market in the second half of this year is destined to be extraordinary and may experience significant volatility. Regarding macro factors, we have previously listed and analyzed them in previous articles:
For example, regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, although many analysts previously believed the Fed might cut rates in June, based on the latest situation, the probability of a rate cut in June is actually very low.
For instance, regarding the US debt issue, public data shows that as of May 2025, the total US debt scale has reached $36.2 trillion, with $28.9 trillion in publicly held debt and $7.31 trillion in government internal debt. In the current high-interest-rate environment, continuing to solve debt problems through refinancing would face higher costs, which could also impact global markets (including crypto markets).
There are also issues like US tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and so on.
Therefore, if Bitcoin reaches a historical high in June and enters a consolidation phase, Altcoin prices might continue to be hyped, but we do not believe that a comprehensive Altcoin market will be launched at this stage. The current bull market still primarily belongs to Bitcoin. If your risk appetite is not high, or you are only doing short-term Altcoin trading, this might be a good stage to profit and exit before the end of June.
As time enters July, global macro factors might further change. For example, the 90-day tariff suspension period announced by Trump will expire (Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries on April 9), and the Federal Reserve might also provide some new and clearer directions on interest rates and policies.
Considering various new uncertainties and even potential unknown black swan events, we will maintain a cautious attitude towards the overall market performance starting from the third quarter. Given that Bitcoin has already risen significantly since April, the crypto market might face a new round of periodic small corrections or oscillation.
This situation might continue for 1-2 months. If Bitcoin truly breaks $120,000 and reaches $130,000 before this, a small correction during this period might be 10-20%, with Bitcoin potentially falling back to around $104,000 for horizontal consolidation.
As retail investor sentiment falls into pessimism or wait-and-see mode, we might see some market-positive news, and market sentiment might quietly start to change. This period (July-August) is most likely to be a new Altcoin opportunity window, especially concepts like AI, RWA, Staking, Stablecoins, DeFi, and MEME might continue to be hyped.
As time enters August and September, coupled with potential Fed rate cut expectations, more explicit crypto regulation policies in the US, potential progress in Altcoin ETFs, the high point for Altcoins in this bull market might officially start from September. Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D indicator) might start to decline rapidly, with many Altcoins potentially seeing several times growth, and we cannot rule out some "god-tier" coins (individual new coins experiencing dozens of times growth in a short time), meaning the market has a certain probability of ushering in a so-called "Altcoin season".
However, we maintain our previous view that there are too many Altcoins in this cycle, which will severely dilute liquidity and cannot replicate the comprehensive surge of Altcoins in previous bull market cycles. If you don't want to miss potential opportunities, start paying attention to projects with good fundamentals, good token economics (no massive unlocking), and that align with hot narratives.
Of course, if you don't have the time and energy to research projects but don't want to miss potential Altcoin opportunities, the simplest approach is still: Use a position you can afford to risk, and buy ETH, SOL, and other top projects in stages. They might still have a 1-2x performance opportunity this year.
If the Altcoin season mentioned above truly arrives, people may once again fall into the bull market frenzy, and potential risks could emerge at any time. We believe this so-called Altcoin season won't last long, and when October arrives, as we mentioned earlier, the market may experience a significant periodic correction. Bitcoin might drop to around $94,600, while Altcoins could face a correction of at least 20-30%, with many people getting trapped at the top again.
But history always repeats itself, stage after stage. As the possibility of the fourth quarter market declines, retail investors will again choose to hand over their chips, while whales may continue to accumulate after periodic profits and prepare for a new round of speculation.
The fourth quarter of this year is theoretically the last bull tail opportunity in this cycle (2022-2025). As the market enters a consolidation phase in October-November and retail investor sentiment drops to a low point, we might see new market positive signals and potentially the beginning of new narrative speculations (most likely focused on AI, RWA, and other emerging fields, while not excluding older domains like GameFi).
If successful, we may welcome a small wave of good market performance before the end of the year or delayed until the first quarter of 2026. However, we don't know how high Bitcoin will ultimately rise, nor whether it will reach the $150,000 psychological expectation of many people.
Theoretically, from 2026, we will face a new cycle rotation, especially for Altcoins without long-term fundamentals, which will enter a new cycle. During the subsequent bear market, they might drop so low that even their mothers won't recognize them. Therefore, if you want to maintain a long-term position before the end of the year, the safest approach is to keep only BTC and USDC.
Unless the market continues to undergo some new transformations, which could break the existing 4-year cycle pattern, and Bitcoin leads the crypto market into a new super cycle (refer to our thoughts on transformation in the January 17th article).
However, it's important to remind you that market trends are unpredictable. The "script" above is just our possible speculation about the second half of the year, and the time points and price descriptions may be incorrect. This is not investment advice. DYOR.
Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dKHxeGeyUuW41uwitMQpdQ
