The market, project, currency, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Written by 0xBrooker
The market dividend since the "peer tariff war" entered its third stage has been exhausted.
With Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" approved by the House of Representatives, the "US debt crisis" once again cooled the market's long sentiment, coupled with Trump's intention to impose additional tariffs on the EU, creating a "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill situation in the US.
Driven by capital inflows and the passage of the "Stablecoin Bill", BTC's long sentiment was high in the first half of the week, breaking through the "Trump bottom" and creating a new historical high in US dollars.
While fund inflows increased and selling also began to increase, the overall selling pressure remains small, indicating that BTC is still dominated by upward momentum and may temporarily adjust or end at any time.
Policies, Macroeconomic Finance, and Economic Data
Since May, global risk traders have gradually adjusted their framework to the US economic and employment fundamentals and interest rate policy game. The "gray rhinoceros" threatening the US economy and financial markets has reappeared this week.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is a comprehensive fiscal legislation pushed by US President Trump, covering areas such as taxation, immigration, healthcare, and border security. Aimed at realizing Trump's governance agenda through tax cuts and policy reforms, the bill was approved by the US House of Representatives on May 22 and has been transferred to the Senate for review.
With extensive coverage and expanded spending while reducing taxes, the bill ultimately requires raising the US debt ceiling to $4 trillion. This will increase the US debt limit from the current $36.1 trillion to $40.1 trillion. At that time, the maximum debt will reach 140% of GDP, creating a historical high.
This further undermines market confidence in the US government's debt repayment ability and willingness, further reducing US debt attractiveness, with US debt having lost top ratings from all three major rating agencies.
In response to the "One Big Beautiful Bill", the anchor of global asset pricing, the US 10-year Treasury yield, once again jumped above 4.5% this week. High Treasury yields will undoubtedly increase borrowing costs for enterprises and consumers, suppress investment and consumption, ultimately affecting corporate profitability and putting pressure on the stock market.
Influenced by the House's approval of the "One Big Beautiful Bill", the three major stock indices this week stopped their rebound since the tariff war reversal, showing a downward trend, with Nasdaq -2.47%, S&P 500 -2.61%, and Dow Jones -2.47%.
The US dollar index turned from four consecutive weeks of gains to a decline of 1.03%, reaching 99.1252.
Gold once again became the beneficiary. London gold rose 1.98% this week, rising to $3,359.90 per ounce.
The final approval of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is still pending, and its dynamics will undoubtedly become a major variable affecting financial markets in the near future.
Crypto Market
Driven by BTC Spot ETF channel fund inflows, corporate holdings, and the passage of the "Genius Bill", BTC was shrouded in optimistic sentiment, achieving a 7-week consecutive rise.
Before the panic sentiment caused by the House's approval of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" spread, BTC achieved a historical breakthrough, creating a historical record in US dollar pricing - $112,000 per coin.
From a technical indicator perspective, it ran above the 5-week line throughout the week, with trading volume expanding and weekly MACD just rising above water. BTC price ran above the first upward trend line and tested the upper edge of the "Trump bottom" (90,000~110,000).
From a technical pattern perspective, BTC remains in a medium-term upward trend, but affected by the "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill and having achieved significant increases over multiple days, market long sentiment may experience a certain period of adjustment.
On May 19, the procedural vote in the Senate passed 66-32, marking the imminent implementation of the US stablecoin regulatory framework. From a policy perspective, the "Genius Bill" (US Stablecoin Innovation Guidance and Establishment Act of 2025) may be comparable to the BTC Spot ETF approval in 2024.
The "Genius Bill" defines the definition, regulation, audit, consumer protection, and underlying asset requirements for US dollar stablecoins (US dollar cash, short-term US Treasury bonds, and other highly liquid assets). Although the US aims to promote its blockchain industry development, maintain the dollar's international status, increase dollar penetration, and somewhat alleviate US debt issuance pressure, it will undoubtedly promote the development of stablecoins, the second-largest blockchain application after BTC.
On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council officially passed the "Stablecoins Bill", establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory framework for fiat-referenced stablecoins (FRS).
We believe that in terms of application scope and number of holders, stablecoins are likely to exceed BTC. The positive progress in stablecoins in the US and Hong Kong indicates that beyond value storage, the DApp applications or Web3 part based on smart contract platforms are also being recognized by governments. This is particularly important for the industry.
Capital Inflows and Outflows
Although the "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill once again dampened the US stock market, the crypto market's trading enthusiasm seems to remain unaffected.
Maintaining positive fund inflows for 7 trading days, with a total inflow of $5.574 billion this week, including $2.548 billion in stablecoins, $2.775 billion in BTC Spot ETF, and $250 million in ETH Spot ETF.
Stablecoin and ETF Channel Fund Inflow and Outflow Statistics (Weekly)
Since bottoming out and rebounding in early April, after the first round of significant inflows, funds showed some hesitation after reaching $100,000, and this week's significant fund inflows again pushed BTC to challenge historical highs.
Selling Pressure and Sales
After BTC returned to the $100,000 mark, long holders again started reducing positions, reversing the trend of gradually decreasing exchange inflows over the past five weeks. This week, BTC inflows to exchanges reached 159,869.37 coins. Centralized exchanges remain in an outflow state, with balances dropping to 2,987,307 coins, but the outflow rate has slowed.
Centralized Digital Currency Exchange BTC Inflow and Outflow Statistics (Weekly)
As market stabilizers, the long holder group initiated reductions near new highs, with a reduction of 1,195.43 coins this week.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.75, in an upward phase.
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment, with industrial foresight, insights, and data mining as core competencies, committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets for human benefit.
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