After experiencing a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark and set a new all-time high, injecting new confidence into the market. However, with the price increase, a key question arises: Are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders - long-term holders - beginning to sell? This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is cause for concern or simply a healthy part of the Bitcoin market cycle.
Signs of Profit-Taking Emerging
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides instant insight into the network's realized profits. Focusing on recent weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in profit realization. The concentration of green bars indicates that a considerable number of investors are selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially after the price rose from the $74,000-$75,000 range to a new high above $100,000.
However, while this may raise short-term concerns about resistance above, it must be understood within a broader on-chain context. Such behavior is not uncommon in bull markets and cannot be used alone as a signal of a cycle top.
Long-Term Holder Supply Continues to Grow
"Long-term holder supply" refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets with a holding time exceeding 155 days, and this indicator continues to climb despite the price surge. This trend does not necessarily mean new buying is occurring, but rather indicates that Bitcoin is "aging" into long-term holding status without being transferred or sold.
In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding, transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or middle stages of a bull market, without showing signs of large-scale distribution.
HODL Waves Analysis
To delve deeper, we used HODL Waves data, which segments wallets by their Bitcoin holding age. Focusing on wallets holding for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by medium to long-term holders.
Interestingly, while this proportion remains high, it has begun to slightly decline, indicating that some long-term holders may be selling, even as long-term holder supply continues to grow. The primary driver of long-term supply growth seems to be short-term holders gradually "aging" into the 155+ day holding bracket, rather than massive new fund inflows.
Using raw data from the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the change rate of long-term holder balances by wallet holding age. Historically, when this indicator shows a significant decline, it often coincides with market tops. Conversely, when the indicator rises sharply, it typically corresponds to market bottoms and deep accumulation phases.
Short-Term Changes and Distribution Ratio
To enhance the precision of these signals, the data can be more finely segmented by comparing "recent market entrants (0-1 month)" with "medium-term holders (1-5 years)". This holding age distribution comparison provides more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.
We found that when the proportion of 1-5 year holders relative to new entrants drops sharply, it historically coincides with Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio rises rapidly, indicating more Bitcoin flowing into the hands of more experienced investors, it often precedes significant price increases.
Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and price movement sustainability. Historical data shows that long-term holders often outperform short-term traders by buying during panic and holding long-term. By analyzing Bitcoin's age distribution structure, we can more accurately capture market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.
Conclusion
Currently, long-term holders are showing only slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at previous cycle tops. While profit-taking exists, its pace appears completely controlled and part of a healthy market environment. Considering the current bull market stage and institutional and retail investor participation, the data suggests we are still in a structurally strong phase, with further price increases possible against the backdrop of continued new fund inflows.
Welcome to join the BlockBeats official community:
Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats
Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App
Twitter Official Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia
