Next week's macro outlook: The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are bleak this year, Trump's divine assistance may usher in a second boiling moment for gold

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PANews
05-24
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PANews reported on May 24 that over the past week, Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and Trump's multi-trillion-dollar "Beautiful Big Bill" have once again triggered a wave of selling US dollar assets. On Friday, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU and Apple further sparked a "triple kill" of US stocks, bonds, and exchange rates. The US dollar has fallen to a three-week low, recording its largest weekly decline since the announcement of tariff plans in early April. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week

Monday at 2:40, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a graduation speech at Princeton University.

Tuesday at 16:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a policy panel discussion at the Bank of Japan Financial Research Institute and deliver a speech.

Wednesday at 8:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan Financial Research Institute.

Wednesday at 16:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a dialogue and Q&A session at Keio University.

Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting.

Thursday at 20:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will participate in a fireside chat.

Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 and the revised annualized quarterly rate of Q1 real GDP.

Thursday at 22:40, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A.

Friday at 4:00, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in an economics-related fireside chat with the Oakland Rotary Club.

Friday at 8:25, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver opening remarks and participate in a dialogue for an event.

Friday at 20:30, US April core PCE price index year-on-year and month-on-month rates, US April personal spending month-on-month rate.

Next Friday will release the first US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation and consumption data since Trump's "Liberation Day". The core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, which fell sharply in March from 3.0% to 2.6% year-on-year. According to the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model, the April core PCE year-on-year growth is expected to remain unchanged, but the overall PCE is projected to slow slightly to 2.2%.

With core inflation rate unchanged, it is difficult to see the Federal Reserve taking a more decisive action path on interest rates. In fact, most of the inflationary pressure from tariffs will take time to be reflected in the data, so it may take several months to understand the impact of Trump's tariffs on price growth.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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