This article is compiled from a video interview between Anthony Pompliano and Jordi Visser, a strategic investment expert with 30 years of Wall Street experience. Jordi will provide a unique perspective on the current economic situation. In the interview, Jordi delves into hot topics such as inflation, stock markets, Bitcoin, AI, and analyzes why market trends often go against mainstream expectations.
TL&DR
The traditional economic textbook definition of "economic recession" has lost its explanatory power in the contemporary economic structure
The market is beginning to view Bitcoin as an indispensable part of asset allocation
Currency depreciation is an inevitable trend
Self-investors, independent investors, and retail investors are the true driving forces of the market
The essence of the "Federal Reserve put" is the perpetual depreciation of currency
The core driving factor of Bitcoin's price trend lies in the changing correlation between the US dollar index and US Treasury yields
Structural changes in capital flows are more worth paying attention to than short-term economic fluctuations
Tariff policies causing currency reflux will continue to put pressure on the US dollar, thereby affecting the yield curve
The strong performance of the AI industry in Q1 strongly supported overall economic indicators
As AI develops exponentially, the importance of historical experience is declining
（一）Inflation Controversy and Data Trust Crisis
Anthony Pompliano: The market once worried about tariffs, economic recession, and even a great depression, but April data shows consumption remains strong, with some goods dropping in price and inflation cooling. The stock market quickly rebounded. Does this mean the alarm is lifted? How do you view these economic signals?
Jordi Visser: As tariff issues ease, the policy path of the past five weeks has gradually become clear: from a 90-day grace period for tariffs on Chinese products to phased tax rate increases, now mostly stabilizing around 10%, close to the level Druckenmiller approves.
This makes the economic data more differentiated: corporate sentiment (soft data) remains low, but consumption and "hard data" driven by AI investment are performing steadily. Although consumption is short-term affected by market volatility, the AI industry strongly supports the economy.
Therefore, the S&P 500's rebound is reasonable. Despite many pessimistic expectations, the stock market has risen this year, and economic recession predictions have not come true. In fact, the traditional definition of recession is difficult to apply to the current complex and resilient economic structure.
Anthony Pompliano: Current economic data is showing a clear political tendency. How can we find credible reference indicators? In economic analysis, should we re-evaluate the reference value of such politicized data?
Jordi Visser: In the current environment, the Bitcoin community has a unique advantage. In the social media era, people more easily access information that aligns with their views, and many macro analysts attract attention by talking down the market. Bitcoin holders, having long been rejected by the mainstream, have developed the ability to question authority and think independently.
Against the backdrop of accelerating AI development, the importance of historical experience is declining. For example, comparing tariff policies from the 19th century to now is no longer appropriate; modern information spreads extremely quickly, and rumors like port vacancies can quickly amplify people's inflation fears, making rational judgment more difficult.
The core advantage of Bitcoin holders is understanding "cognitive humility". The essence of the current macro situation is: there is too much debt, and the government cannot address it by increasing taxes or cutting expenses, ultimately resolving it through currency depreciation, which will erode bond values but benefit Bitcoin. The key is to discern truly important signals amidst social media noise.
（二）Bitcoin's Counterattack: From Marginal Asset to Market Leader
Anthony Pompliano: The advantage of Bitcoin holders is "cognitive blank", admitting their lack of understanding of traditional finance, and thus more able to accept new normalization. Bitcoin is not an IQ test, but a test of cognitive flexibility: can one break out of old thinking and recognize that we are already in a completely new economic normalization.
Today, capital is accelerating its shift towards self-directed investors, with self-directed, independent, and retail investors becoming the true driving force of the market. While institutions have funds, they often get trapped in complex strategies, such as hedging operations that are essentially arbitrage; whereas retail investors' "buy and hold" strategy is simpler and more effective, having been verified multiple times in cases like Tesla, Palantir, and GameStop.
Against the backdrop of currency devaluation, the most straightforward "buy and hold" strategy often outperforms sophisticated financial engineering.
Jordi Visser: The long-held "Fed put" theory on Wall Street is undergoing fundamental transformation. Traditional financial crises often form a U-shaped bottom (slow recovery), but now the market is showing an I-shaped linear rebound (immediate recovery after a sharp drop).
There are two main reasons:
AI is reshaping economic structure, widespread flexible employment makes large-scale unemployment difficult, rendering traditional recession models ineffective; recession has become a policy choice, with governments using inflationary policies to offset deflationary pressures from technology, balancing the economy between technological deflation and policy inflation.
Bitcoin investors can discern this trend due to two key insights:
Understanding that the "Fed put" is essentially continuous currency devaluation; high-frequency trading has trained their mindset to make calm decisions under pressure, like poker players.
Anthony Pompliano: When market consensus diverges from actual trends, how can one identify effective economic signals? When authoritative judgments consistently deviate from market reality, what are the true leading indicators?
Jordi Visser: I believe the stock market will remain volatile this year, but with corporate profit growth and stable economic fundamentals.
Paul Tudor Jones turned bearish before the US-China tariff easing, and Steve Cohen estimates a 45% recession probability with potential market correction. But be cautious: when famous investors talk down the market, it might be because they missed the rebound and are trying to guide market sentiment.
I don't think the market will retest its lows, due to the unique financial model of the AI industry: While tech giants plan $300 billion in capital expenditure, they only need to amortize $30 billion this year. This "revenue-forward, cost-deferred" model provides short-term profit space for the S&P 500. Similar situations occurred in early cloud computing and internet eras, but today's tech companies have lower debt.
Long-term (2-3 years ahead), challenges will emerge when Mag7 companies need to deliver real returns. Sequoia notes that startups are gradually eroding the market share of giants. The market is expected to create new highs before facing pressure, but won't return to previous lows in the short term.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating into clear, fluent English.]As interest rates continue to rise, the default rates for consumer credit and housing mortgages in the United States have climbed to cyclical highs. In this context, policymakers may be forced to introduce housing market relief policies. Although the possibility of directly implementing quantitative easing is low, targeted liquidity support measures similar to the Silicon Valley Bank incident cannot be ruled out.
Under the normalization of the AI-driven new economy, the impact of rising interest rates on the tech industry shows significant differentiation. Top tech companies Mag7 (referring specifically to Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, and six other tech giants) are basically immune to financing cost pressures, and AI companies have demonstrated strong profitability resilience. This structural difference provides a basis for potential Bitcoin short-selling.
Anthony Pompliano: For AI enterprises, higher interest rates might actually bring greater competitive advantages, as their competitors face higher capital costs.
Jordi Visser: The current economy shows structural differentiation, with corporate bankruptcies and startup growth coexisting. Traditional enterprises are forced to exit due to rising financing costs, while AI startups are rapidly emerging, reflecting improved resource allocation efficiency. However, we must remain vigilant about potential structural risks in this transformation.
The key is to determine: Is this a benign market self-regulation, or is there a hidden systemic crisis? Whether the decline of traditional industries can match the growth pace of emerging industries will determine the sustainability of this transformation.
(V) Creative Destruction: Survival Rules in the AI Era
Anthony Pompliano: How can we judge the quality of the current economic adjustment? Are the resources of eliminated enterprises effectively transferred to more innovative and efficient emerging enterprises?
Jordi Visser: From a micro perspective, corporate failures indeed cause social costs such as job losses and interrupted family incomes; but from a macroeconomic execution mechanism, this survival of the fittest process is similar to corporate organizational optimization, a necessary path to maintaining market vitality and promoting industrial upgrades. This is essentially the inherent nature of economic recession, and creative destruction is happening.
Career interruption can also become an opportunity for skill upgrading. Last year, after closing my hedge fund, I chose to start a business, turning to AI learning and Python programming, achieving a career transformation. This shows that as long as time is invested, even at 58, continuous learning can break age limitations and open new career paths. For job seekers, mastering AI skills will significantly enhance competitiveness.
Anthony Pompliano: The Trump team has secured investment commitments of several trillion in the Middle East, which, while not immediately realized, still sees the United States as an open market under a tax increase backdrop. Do these countries ultimately see the US as a partner or an opponent? Is this perception important for economic development?
Jordi Visser: One should maintain caution towards any installment-published fundraising data. The US net international investment position has reached negative 27 trillion dollars, a verifiable data point showing global capital has deeply intervened. If the US dollar continues to depreciate, overseas-held US productive assets will face systemic devaluation risks.
With current debt and fiscal deficit issues lacking effective solutions, the US dollar's weakness will show a gradual characteristic. While the Federal Reserve has not restarted quantitative easing, it only reduces bond reinvestment by 5 billion dollars weekly, and this "nominal tightening" policy is internally consistent with Asian and European investors' strategy of gradually reducing US debt holdings - matured funds may not be fully reinvested.
More worthy of attention is the global competitive landscape of the AI industry. The technological advantages of US startups are facing global catch-up, with European developers fully capable of developing products similar to Cursor and Replit. If Mag7 companies' market positions are shaken, global income redistribution will trigger capital flow pattern restructuring, and this structural change is far more strategically significant than short-term fundraising scale.
Disclaimer
The content of this article does not represent ChainCatcher's viewpoint. The perspectives, data, and conclusions represent the personal positions of the original author or interviewees. The compilation team maintains a neutral attitude and does not endorse its accuracy. It does not constitute professional advice or guidance in any field. Readers should use it cautiously based on independent judgment. This compilation is limited to knowledge sharing purposes. Readers are requested to strictly comply with local laws and regulations and not participate in any illegal financial activities.
