Bitcoin writes a new historical high again! On the morning of the 22nd after 7 o'clock, Bitcoin successfully reached a price of $110,804 on the OKX market, adding glory to the annual Bitcoin Pizza Day.
Bitcoin is About to Enter an Acceleration Phase
Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin has currently entered a breakthrough interval historically accompanied by continuous explosive growth.
The Bitcoin Quantile Model shows that the current market presents a similar "heat" to the highs after Trump's election and the spot ETF promotion in the fourth quarter of 2024. The model uses quantile regression to depict Bitcoin price stages on a logarithmic scale, indicating that Bitcoin is currently in a "transition zone", a critical node before entering the "acceleration phase".(The following chart is somewhat like a Bitcoin rainbow chart, but the methods used are different)
The article points out that once entering the "acceleration phase", it may trigger the next wave of Bitcoin's rise. The model predicts that Bitcoin may gradually reach price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months.
Additionally, anonymous analyst apsk32, based on Bitcoin's "power curve", believes that Bitcoin breaking through $200,000 in 2025 is a completely "reasonable" expectation, and points out that Bitcoin's position relative to gold has significantly improved since April.
Meanwhile, data analysis also shows that the Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin and gold has recently converged. Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, even suggests that investors can adopt a 4:1 gold to Bitcoin allocation ratio for portfolio investment.
Trading Volume is a Breakthrough Key
However, we know that last night, under the concerns of Trump's new tax reform exacerbating the US government's fiscal deficit (if passed, the US will expand its deficit by $3.8 trillion in the next ten years), the bid rate for the 20-year US Treasury bond rose to 5.047%, a new high since the second half of 2023, accelerating capital withdrawal from the stock market, with all four major indices falling.
Cryptocurrency researchers analyze that for Bitcoin to truly break through, trading volume should ideally remain high for multiple days, presenting a situation of both price and volume rising, which would be a key indicator of whether it can sustain the breakthrough.
Currently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract large amounts of capital, with only two net outflow days since May, and the outflow amounts are small, continuously providing bullish support and forming a price support.
Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows that retail investor demand on May 21st was only 3.2%, far lower than the 30% level in December 2024, indicating that current retail participation has not yet reached its peak and may bring new funds to support the continued rise.
