In the comments at the end of yesterday's article, there was a comment like this:
"What I'm worried about is that BTC is now oscillating at a high level, while Ethereum and other assets are still at the bottom. The four-year cycle seems unrelated to Ethereum and other assets, but Ethereum and other assets plummet with a slight pullback of BTC. The main reason is still lack of innovation. However, according to the four-year cycle, BTC will be bullish this year, and BTC will turn bearish next year. Other assets might fall to the bottom again. Moreover, if the US stock market really crashes, assets other than BTC will be miserable, I dare not think..."
This reader thought of the superposition of three worst-case scenarios:
If Bitcoin turns bearish next year, it will drag down the crypto ecosystem (including Ethereum) that hasn't even entered a bull market yet.
If the US stock market really crashes, all crypto assets, including Bitcoin, might be doomed, which would be adding insult to injury.
Ethereum and other crypto assets are already at low levels. If these two unfavorable factors are superimposed, the situation would be even more miserable.
I think these three scenarios are indeed likely to happen. Being able to think of the superposition of these three scenarios shows that investors are relatively rational and won't be as excited as many people who casually shout "XX thousand by the end of the year".
In a relatively rational situation, the next steps are actually not difficult, which I have shared in previous articles:
Before taking action, we should try to think through all the worst-case scenarios and then plan how we would deal with them when these worst-case scenarios occur.
This is how I'm preparing:
First, the trend of this market cycle is hard to grasp, which means the previous method of selling when Bitcoin and Ethereum's valuations are too high might not work.
For example, if Bitcoin rises to $120,000, should I sell? I won't sell because this price is neither high nor low, and if I sell and want to buy back, it would be very difficult. Similarly, should I sell Ethereum at $5,000 or $6,000? I won't sell either, as this is also a marginal price.
Unless Bitcoin and Ethereum rise to an extremely ridiculous price, I will likely hold them in this cycle. But thinking they'll rise to such a ridiculous price is just something to be happy about, don't take it too seriously.
Since I will probably hold them in this cycle, it means that if the extreme scenario of those three situations occurs, I will likely continue holding until the next bull market arrives.
And the period of holding until the next bull market will not be easy. There won't be brilliant scenery or prosperous scenes during this time, and most of the time will be a lonely, bitter endurance.
Since there will be such a difficult period ahead, investors must especially think clearly about whether the assets they hold, especially those with large positions (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), have value and a future.
In my view, this is the fundamental and key to enduring hardship and seeing light again.
If one cannot clearly understand this in the depths of their soul and is hesitant in their heart, they absolutely cannot endure the upcoming period.
What does it mean to be "unable to understand clearly in the depths of the soul and hesitant in the heart"?
For example, believing rumors and then doubting, is XXX not working?
For example, when institutions reduce holdings, then doubting, is XXX not working?
For example, when the entire network is talking about XXX, then doubting, is XXX not working?
...
Many more examples could be given.
If any of the above examples cause doubt for the holder, it means that when buying these assets, the holder did not believe in them themselves, let alone understand them. Instead, they wanted to speculate and heard about a ship that would reach the "gold mountain" tomorrow, and then boarded it without hesitation. They have no idea whether this ship is taking them to a new continent to dig gold or to the old San Francisco to be laborers.
However, I believe that selling the held assets and positions due to doubt at this time is not a bad thing. Steadily holding assets one is comfortable with or simply holding cash and living an ordinary life is good in itself.
What's most feared is selling and then buying back due to various rumors, which would only make things worse.
If investors have completely blocked out these doubts and believe that the heavy positions they hold have value and a future, the remaining task is simple:
Check if the funds occupied by these positions will not be needed in the next few years?
If some money will be needed, then sell part of the position to ensure a good life.
If it's all idle money that won't affect one's life in the next few years, then completely set aside this investment and don't manage it, persist in enduring.
No wealth is easily obtained.
Unless one's ancestors' graves are smoking, ordinary people must possess qualities that ordinary people do not have to obtain wealth that ordinary people cannot.
Where do these qualities come from?
They are honed in these various torments.
