Author: Arthur Hayes
Translated by: Odaily
Arthur Hayes is an iconic early figure in BTC, who co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal issues for violating US regulatory requirements. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish sufficient anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation and paid fines, but received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.
Currently, Hayes focuses on managing the family fund Maelstrom and remains an influential figure in the crypto asset field. Fortune contributor Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market - including predicting that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and potentially break $1 million by 2028.
In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and Altcoin markets and explained why he chose to allocate 20% of his assets to gold.
Below is the full interview, which has been condensed and edited.
Q1: About the Real US Deficit
Anna: You called the US Treasury's recent borrowing operations a "magic trick". Why?
Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been consuming its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "extraordinary measures" (underfunded government projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, causing the TGA to drop from $75 billion to $45 billion this quarter, which means $30 billion in spending was achieved without new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeds official data.
This is confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, theoretically the US government cannot net increase borrowing, but they maintain spending through various accounting methods without breaking the limit. From January to March 2025, the Treasury's borrowing scale is 22% higher than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.
Q2: About Market Liquidity
Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Arthur Hayes: I believe the US government's actual borrowing needs are much larger than publicly disclosed data, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and need to provide maximum leverage for these debts through the banking system. The ultimate result is further global dollar liquidity flooding, as the US government is increasing spending.
In short, this is the essence of repo operations, and why I believe it will boost market liquidity. Based on this, I judge that Bitcoin has bottomed out on April 9th, and as the government continues borrowing and Bessent ensures low-cost financing, Bitcoin's price will continue to rise significantly.
Q3: About Altcoin Season
Anna: So at what point does Bitcoin need to rise to trigger an Altcoin market?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin needs to break $110,000 and continue to rise with volume to the $150,000-$200,000 range. I expect this to happen in summer or early Q3 this year, after which funds will start rotating into various Altcoins.
Q4: About Bull Market Expectations
Anna: Do you think the upcoming Altcoin market will see a crazy super-cycle surge like in 2021, or just a slight rebound?
Arthur Hayes: It's unlikely to reproduce the 2021 situation where all coins surged 100x. The market will have new narrative hotspots, and some coins might surge wildly, but those "dinosaur coins" in your portfolio that have been stagnant for a long time won't rise for a reason. Many projects have inflated valuations, low liquidity, lack real users and revenue, and rely solely on exchange listing hype. Now their prices have dropped 95%, and I don't think they'll perform well in the next cycle.
Q5: About Personal Return Expectations
Anna: What are your expected returns in this market?
Arthur Hayes: At least outperform Bitcoin's gains. If we decide to allocate funds, the target assets must exceed Bitcoin's returns.
Q6: About Trump
Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's crypto policies?
Arthur Hayes: His team should introduce crypto-friendly policies, but this doesn't mean the specific project you hold will definitely appreciate, nor does it mean policies will be implemented according to your expected timeline.
Current market expectations are too high. Some even think crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget Trump is a politician with many higher-priority matters to handle. Everyone needs to be patient.
Q7: About Gold
Anna: With increasing market uncertainty, we've seen gold surge significantly. Have you allocated gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?
Arthur Hayes: I've long held gold, storing physical gold bars in a vault and holding substantial gold mining stocks - which are still undervalued given gold's price surge. I believe gold has significant upside potential as central banks continue to increase holdings.
More importantly, I expect the US to significantly revalue its gold reserves, diluting debt by devaluing the dollar against gold. By the end of this market cycle, gold prices might reach $10,000 to $20,000.
Gold represents about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.
Q8: About ETH vs SOL
Anna: That's quite a high proportion! There's currently much debate about ETH and SOL in the market. Which do you favor?
Arthur Hayes: I believe ETH has more upside potential, though it's currently under scrutiny - everyone thinks it's underperforming, and the development team keeps making mistakes. But the reality is it maintains the highest Total Value Locked (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Yes, despite its price performance being unsatisfactory from 2020 to now.
SOL is obviously performing well, but if I were to allocate fiat now, I think ETH might outperform SOL in the 18-24 month bull market ahead.
Q9: About $1 Million BTC
Anna: You previously predicted Bitcoin would reach $1 million. When will this target be achieved?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million by the end of 2028, before the end of Trump's presidential term.
Q10: About Annual Trend Expectations
Anna: How do you expect the crypto market to move this year?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise, potentially approaching $200,000 in this wave. Then the Altcoin season will arrive, and we'll see some interesting phenomena. By year-end, Bitcoin's target price is around $250,000.
