Despite Bitcoin (BTC) approaching its all-time high, analysis suggests that a sharp decline or a reversal of its upward trend is unlikely. The assessment is that it is more likely to enter a new price discovery phase rather than experiencing a 'double top' scenario of falling again near its peak.
Swiss-based asset management firm Swiss Block Technologies recently stated in a research note that "Bitcoin's strong trend continues, and there are no signs warranting concerns about a double top." This analysis is based on their self-developed 'Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI)', an indicator that comprehensively diagnoses trend strength using on-chain metrics.
The BFI has maintained a consistent bullish trend, moving within a neutral range of 50-100 from August 2024 to the present. Notably, it did not show major bearish signals even during the adjustment period in February and March. Therefore, even if there is a short-term adjustment, the overall price trend remains open to the upside.
Swiss Block emphasized, "If Bitcoin's price were to fall back without reaching an all-time high, a bearish signal would first appear on the BFI. However, there are currently no such indications." They added, "On-chain-based strength remains valid, and with no signs of trend breakdown, this is not the bears' turn."
Historically, when Bitcoin returns within 10% of its all-time high, it often enters a price discovery phase. The current situation is approaching this criterion, suggesting the potential for further upward movement towards breaking the high point.
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