Macro Outlook: Market sentiment warms up, but short-term outlook remains bullish
There is a lack of important economic data in the United States this week, and the market focus is on the response of Federal Reserve officials to the statement that "interest rates may only be cut once this year." The options market shows that bullish sentiment is dominant: the Call/Put ratio is as high as 1.55 , and the premium of call contracts continues to rise; while the short-term implied volatility (IV) has been suppressed to an 18-month low of 35-40% .
This means that the market is "high sentiment and calm volatility" - in this case, Bitcoin may hit a new high again in 30-45 days , breaking through the $105,000-115,000 range. However, this "high sentiment + low volatility" often masks the risks of high leverage accumulation. Once volatility soars or BTC effectively falls below $100,000, it may trigger a deleveraging stampede adjustment.
Market strategy: Rotate and deploy high-quality cottages to take advantage of the situation to absorb overflow funds
In terms of operation, under the premise of controlling the total position, if part of the funds are rotated to high-quality Altcoin with solid fundamentals and strong liquidity , it may be able to take over the spillover momentum brought by the rise of Bitcoin. This issue of HTX DeepThink #5 selects potential track targets for you, for reference only.
SUI Ecosystem: Main chain reaches new high, leading projects are still in valuation trough
Recently, the market value of the SUI main chain has hit a record high , but its ecological projects have not yet seen a systematic rebound. The current situation may be a key window for low-level layout of ecological leaders. Huobi HTX has taken the lead in launching two high-potential SUI projects: Haedal and Bluefin .
- Haedal : The leading LST protocol on the SUI chain, which occupies 76% of the market share and has a very high network effect.
- Bluefin : Perp DEX, the main force of SUI ecosystem, has a market value of only 31.6 million US dollars , but has achieved an annualized revenue of 8.2 million US dollars , with a price-to-sales ratio of only 8x , which is significantly underestimated compared with GMX (9.1x) and Drift (12.4x). It is about to launch V2 upgrade , introduce veToken model and user incentives, and is expected to drive both transaction activity and protocol revenue.
As the popularity of the SUI main chain continues to rise, Haedal and Bluefin, as core infrastructure projects, have the dual potential of valuation repair and Beta increase , and can be paid attention to and deployed in the medium term.
AttentionFi Track: Catcher of Bull Market Traffic Bonus
In the current bull market, with the emergence of new projects, the traffic cost of the Web3 world has increased rapidly. From the perspective of the traditional buying volume model, the user acquisition cost is usually determined by traffic × conversion rate : for example, on platforms such as Telegram, Google or Xiaohongshu, the cost per click is about 0.5-1 US dollars , and the average conversion rate is 10%, which means that the project needs to pay 5-10 US dollars to obtain a real retained user. Kaito provides a more efficient "traffic engine": its API is based on "reputation × high-quality interaction" billing, and the real user retention acquired under the same budget is increased by 3-4 times, and the cost per user is reduced to 2-3 US dollars , which is significantly lower than other channels. At the same time, early cooperation with multiple popular projects for airdrops has accumulated a huge user pool. This cost reduction and efficiency improvement has also driven Kaito's rapid expansion-in the past 3 months, the number of connected projects has increased from 30 to 120, and the call volume has quadrupled.
At the same time, the community pledge of $KAITO has reached 19.7 million , and the agreement has repurchased and destroyed 3.7 million tokens , further increasing the upper limit of the currency price. In the Base chain IDO platform Virtuals , users only need to pledge ≥ 5,000 $KAITO to obtain Virgen points for redemption of IDO quota, building a closed loop of "pledge → points → arbitrage". It should be noted that if a project wants to be listed on Kaito's Yapper Leaderboard , it needs to invest a high canvassing cost and $KAITO pledge; for this, the team can use GiveRep to conduct zero-cost reputation screening and seed community construction, and then connect to Kaito for explosive operations, similar to the relationship between large and small exchanges. GiveRep has a close relationship with the SUI Foundation, cooperates with popular SUI projects such as ika and Typus, and has certain airdrop expectations. Currently, Huobi HTX has launched $KAITO . Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce competition for traffic in the bull market, Kaito has become a potential asset worthy of attention through its low-cost and precise user reach and deflationary design of the protocol.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data and crypto industry hotspots, injecting new thinking power into the market, and helping readers " find order in chaos " in the ever-changing crypto world.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research division of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis, comprehensive reporting, and professional evaluation of a wide range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stays at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought, and promoting a deeper understanding of changing market dynamics.
