Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Today is May 19th, and many people are probably familiar with the number 519. On May 19, 2021, the crypto market experienced a massive crash, with Bitcoin's price plummeting from around $44,000 to $29,000 (a drop of over 34%), Ethereum being halved, and other Altcoins also experiencing significant declines, leading to massive liquidations and market panic.
Yesterday (May 18th), Bitcoin briefly broke through the $107,000 mark, just shy of its all-time high, perhaps still haunted by the shadow of the 519 event a few years ago. Today, Bitcoin continued a slight pullback, with its price around $102,500 at the time of writing. As shown in the image below.
Just yesterday, a friend messaged me asking: Will Bitcoin rise to $150,000 this year?
I said: It's not impossible, but you should also consider your entry cost and goals. If the risk isn't too high and you have cash flow (USDT) needs, you might want to start selling in batches around $100,000. Of course, if you're a long-term hodler, it doesn't matter - even if it doesn't reach $150,000 this bull run, it will likely be seen in the next one.
The friend then asked: My Bitcoin cost is around $60,000, and I want to sell half when it reaches $120,000 this year to break even, and then slowly dollar-cost average during the bear market. What do you think?
I then asked: Do you have a Plan B? If it doesn't reach $120,000 this year, do you have a backup plan, and will it affect your future DCA strategy?
The friend continued: No Plan B, I'm mainly worried about not having enough funds to buy the dips.
I said: Since your priority is to have enough funds to buy the dips, you might want to consider selling in batches now (around $100,000) rather than risking everything on a potentially higher return, unless you're willing to accept the risk of potentially not having enough funds to buy the dips during the bear market.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]Of course, by the time we see such messages, we are already among the last to know, but capital is often very keen, and typically dislikes macroeconomic uncertainty. Therefore, whether you like it or not, the current crypto market seems to be heavily dependent on macroeconomic changes.
If the improvement in macroeconomic conditions can be further combined with some positive changes in the project's fundamentals, the reasons for "pulling the market" might be more sufficient. For example, ETH's significant increase this month, besides benefiting from improved macroeconomic conditions, could also benefit from the Pectra upgrade event (May 7th), the further review expectations of spot ETF staking (with news in early May that BlackRock and SEC have discussed ETH staking), and ETH massively flowing out of exchanges (outflow usually indicates investors are more confident and increasing their holdings, as shown in the following image).
Note: The image shows a heat map of Altcoins flowing out of Binance, with red indicating high outflow Altcoins. It can be seen that the current top outflow Altcoins include ETH, ENJ, SLP, FET, etc.
Although macroeconomic conditions are currently improving in some aspects, we still face some areas that need improvement or unknown issues, including: the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to still be in negotiation stages, small-scale conflicts between India and Pakistan may reoccur, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut remains undecided, the possibility of a US economic recession is still relatively high... and so on.
Meanwhile, the overall sentiment of retail investors in the crypto market doesn't seem to have reached the same frenzy as in previous bull markets. Although during the period when Trump issued a token (TRUMP token) early this year, it seemed to have a familiar flavor, it still feels somewhat lacking.
In short, the current market has shown new signs of improvement, but it still seems more dependent on temporary macroeconomic condition improvements and large capital drives (or spillover from traditional funds). Although the crypto market now looks more promising compared to February and March this year, we still need to pay attention to potential new macroeconomic changes and cannot rule out the possibility of new black swan events.
What we need to continue thinking about is how long the bullish trend of Bitcoin can be maintained under the current conditions? Will this bull market really continue until the end of the year?
Of course, if your target plan is for the next 5-10 years, and you believe Bitcoin will rise to $200,000, $300,000, or even $500,000, then all you need is to continue to be patient. You can continue to buy Bitcoin in batches and stages at any time, without being too concerned about current short-term price fluctuations. Although many people say that in the next bear market, Bitcoin might drop to $50,000 or even $30,000, what's most important is whether you will (or dare to) buy Bitcoin again at that time, and whether you will have enough funds to buy Bitcoin.
That's all for today. The sources of images/data mentioned in the text have been supplemented in the Notion. The above content is just a personal perspective and analysis, solely for learning and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LrWoodjvo_z0ZldeMkP9mA
