Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
Continuing from yesterday's discussion, the 106.6k level can still be challenged in the short term. However, do not assume it will keep rising, as the long-term direction still lacks clear signals.
Once the price breaks above 106.6k, it will likely pull back, and if the upward momentum stalls, it will return to oscillation. If you are trapped in a short position, do not rush to close it. Give BTC a chance for a small-scale new high and a potential false breakout.
If it truly stabilizes, long leverages may accumulate and accelerate, offering a chance to break even. But if it's a false breakout, it's simply meant to cut you off. Recognize the situation promptly. For those trapped in long positions, do not stubbornly hold; if new highs seem promising but lack fuel, take profits and observe.
If no false breakout occurs, look for another entry point. Once a false breakout appears, do not hesitate and follow the pullback immediately. The critical level is 100800, with a rigid stop-loss.
Regarding Ethereum, recent new highs have been followed by small pullbacks. Although it seems stable, this rally is merely funds picking up cheap assets after a massive drop, without any new narrative support.
Now in a dense chip area, with selling pressure above and buyers at the bottom, it will likely oscillate between 2413 and 2820 to digest trapped positions. I do not expect Ethereum to soar.
In other words, for Ethereum to truly make a comeback, it needs major US capital inflow and a new story. Otherwise, this self-rescue rebound could reverse anytime. Once market consensus emerges and funds rush in, it might become a false trend spiraling out of control.
The rebound itself is not bad, but caution is needed. In April, I mentioned this is a small unilateral uptrend. Compared to the crazy rally in 2023, it's not particularly strong short-term.
Various short-inducing actions occur frequently, essentially adjusting within 4 to 12-hour cycles. The major trend remains unchanged, with low probability of a short-term reversal.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 104800
Second Resistance: 104000
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 102300
Second Support: 101600
Today's Recommendation:
Bitcoin shows a diamond top formation on the 4-hour chart, a common technical signal indicating a potential bearish trend.
However, the price is still oscillating at the box's upper boundary, so there's no need to turn bearish prematurely. Once it breaks below the box's support line, consider shorting and buying the dips as a new ultra-short-term entry opportunity.
The first resistance at 104k has failed multiple attempts, confirming strong pressure. Further upside is possible only with a strong breakthrough and stabilization.
Even if the price breaks 104K, without raising the high point, the bullish trend remains limited. A breakthrough with positive news and volume increases the probability of a new all-time high.
Currently, the first support at 102.3k can be considered a key short-term support zone. A drop to this area offers a suitable risk-reward entry point for ultra-short-term trades. It's unlikely to directly break 100K, more likely to consolidate above it.
With increased downside expectations, watch for potential entry points at low support during pullbacks. If price rebounds to 104K without clear positive momentum, consider it a false breakout and short immediately.
5.15 Master's Wave Band Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended
Short Entry Reference: 104000-104800 zone, batch shorting. Target: 102300-101600
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