Market Overview: Ethereum Leads, Crypto Assets Surge Across the Board
Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has ushered in a new round of excitement. Ethereum (ETH) strongly broke through the $2,700 mark, reaching a high of $2,725, with a daily gain of 8% and a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past 7 days, marking the best weekly performance since 2022.
Bitcoin (BTC) simultaneously climbed to $104,200, with a 24-hour increase of 1.5%, firmly staying above $100,000; Solana (SOL) rose over 5% to $185, while meme coins like Doge (DOGE) and SHIB followed with 4%-5% gains. Behind this surge, record-breaking Bitcoin ETF inflows, Ethereum's technical upgrade, and macroeconomic shifts have formed a resonance, driving the crypto market into a new phase of "institutional bull market".
Bitcoin ETF: Countertrend Inflow Exceeds $41 Billion, Becoming Core Entry Channel for Institutions
1. Historic Breakthrough: Record Fund Inflows
As of May 13, the cumulative net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $41.1 billion, surpassing the February 2024 peak and setting a new historical record. This data signifies that traditional financial institutions' allocation demand for Bitcoin continues to heat up, with funds steadily flowing in even during the market correction in April.
2. Policy and Market Sentiment Resonance
The "Stablecoin Regulation Act" promoted by the Trump administration and the SEC chairman's nomination of a pro-crypto individual cleared policy obstacles for the ETF. Although funds briefly flowed out due to global trade war concerns in March-April (cumulative outflow of $5 billion), as US-UK tariff agreements were reached and US-China trade talks resumed, risk appetite recovered. In May, ETF fund inflows in a single week surged to $882 million, with institutional funds accelerating to buy the dips.
3. Analyst Perspectives: Long-term Confidence Indicator
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted: "Net inflows are the most authentic confidence indicator. Even during the peak of Trump's tariff panic, funds quickly flowed back, proving that Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative has gained mainstream recognition." ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy added that ETFs have lowered the entry barriers for retail and institutional participants, becoming the core driving force behind Bitcoin breaking $100,000.
Ethereum's Surge: Triple Engine of Technical Upgrade + Short Squeeze + Whale Accumulation
1. Pectra Upgrade Lands, Technical Barriers Strengthened
On May 7, Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra upgrade, introducing account abstraction (EIP-7702) and raising staking limits, significantly reducing gas fees and enhancing network flexibility. This upgrade is seen as a key move to counter competing public chains like Solana, directly stimulating developer and investor confidence.
2. Futures Market "Short Squeeze" Ignites Short-term Market Movement
Starting May 8, Ethereum futures market saw large-scale short position liquidations, with a cumulative liquidation amount of $438 million, far exceeding long liquidations ($211 million). Price spikes forced shorts to close positions, creating an upward spiral. During the same period, Ethereum's open interest surged 25% (from $21.28 billion to $26.77 billion), with perpetual contract funding rates rising to 0.15%, indicating bullish market dominance.
3. Whale Addresses Strategically Accumulating
On-chain data shows that "whales" holding over 10,000 ETH have been continuously accumulating since late April, with holdings reaching the highest level since March 2025 (over 40.75 million ETH). Whale movements typically signal large investors' recognition of medium to long-term value, further consolidating bullish market expectations.
Macro Drivers: Inflation Cooling and Trade Easing Boost Risk Assets
1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Warming Up
April US CPI year-on-year increase was 2.3% (previously 2.8%), approaching the Fed's 2% target, with core CPI month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, below expectations. After the data release, market probability of September rate cut rose to 48.9%, with liquidity easing expectations stimulating fund inflows into the crypto market.
2. Global Trade Tension Easing
US and UK reached a tariff agreement on May 8, reducing UK car export tariffs to the US from 27.5% to 10%, with steel tariffs zeroed; US-China trade talks resumed, reducing "tariff war" risks. The dismantling of trade barriers creates a favorable environment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
3. Traditional Financial Market Correlation
Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes rose 1.6% and 0.7% respectively, with tech stocks and crypto assets moving in sync. Amberdata derivatives head Greg Magadini noted: "ETH's correlation with US stocks is increasing. If risk assets continue to rebound, Ethereum may break through the $2,800 resistance level."
Market Concerns: High-level Oscillation and Technical Risks
1. Hidden Correction Signals in Options Market
Despite spot price surge, Ethereum options implied volatility remains low, indicating market unpreparedness for short-term rapid rises. Deribit data shows $2,800 as a key gamma resistance level; failure to effectively break through may lead to profit-taking.
2. Institutional Fund Divergence
Bitcoin ETF's fund absorption far exceeds other assets (Ethereum ETF weekly inflow only $1.5 million), and competing public chains like Solana and Sui are diverting funds (Sui YTD inflow $84 million), potentially exacerbating market volatility.
3. Regulatory and Geopolitical Variables
Trump's "digital gold strategy" still holds uncertainties, and the SEC's review of Ethereum's security status remains unresolved. Sudden policy shifts could lead to significant market adjustments.
Conclusion: Bull Market's Second Half Begins, Seeking Structural Opportunities Amidst Volatility
This crypto market surge is both a milestone in Bitcoin ETF's institutionalization process and a result of Ethereum's technological ecosystem resonating with macro dividends. In the short term, the market needs to digest gains and focus on the $2,800 key resistance; in the medium to long term, institutional fund entry, technological upgrades, and the rate cut cycle may jointly support the bull market's continuation. Investors should pay attention to ETH/BTC, spot ETF dynamics, Fed policy paths, and Layer2 ecosystem developments, capturing structural opportunities amidst volatility.
