Against the backdrop of continuous profound evolution in the global macro environment, the crypto industry is ushering in a new round of structural transformation. HTX's global investment department, HTX Ventures, recently released a latest report "Industry Observation | Crypto Waves and Potential Opportunities in Macro Gaming", deeply analyzing the core changes and potential opportunities in the current crypto market cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin is gradually moving away from its traditional positioning as "digital gold" and trending in sync with risk assets. The Trump administration's policy support for the crypto industry has elevated it from a gray area of regulatory suppression to a "satellite asset" of US dollar liquidity overflow. The trader structure has also fundamentally changed, shifting from retail-dominated to institution-led, accelerating the entry of crypto assets into the mainstream market system.
The core driver of this cycle is no longer industry-intrinsic innovation, but the legalization and dollarization process of the crypto industry. Unlike the 2020 DeFi wave or the 2017 ICO boom, the crypto industry has become a tech innovation field actively promoted by the US government in this cycle. The concept of Bitcoin strategic reserves further strengthens the industry's potential demand foundation, injecting new growth momentum into the market.
The dollarization trend of the crypto industry continues to deepen, which is both an important engine driving industry growth and a potential source of risk. Bitcoin once demonstrated its capital hedging function independent of the traditional financial system during the Russia-Ukraine war, but in recent geopolitical events, Bitcoin prices fell in sync with risk assets, reflecting its close association with macro liquidity.
The Bitcoin market has been deeply controlled by institutional investors. CME contract positions significantly increased after the Bitcoin spot ETF passed, consistently maintaining over $10 billion. Institutions amplify returns through spot ETF and futures basis arbitrage with high leverage, causing Bitcoin price volatility to be a three-times leveraged version of the Nasdaq index. This structure means that during periods of abundant liquidity, Bitcoin's gains will lead tech stocks; while in liquidity tightening cycles, Bitcoin's declines will also be more dramatic.
On the policy front, the US has made substantial progress in promoting the crypto industry's compliance process. The FIT21 bill clearly defined digital asset regulatory boundaries, bringing tokens with high decentralization under CFTC supervision, establishing a 3-5 year "safe harbor" mechanism to encourage new projects' compliant transformation. Meanwhile, the abolition of SAB 121 breaks the policy barriers to banks' crypto asset custody, with traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and Citigroup successively deploying crypto asset custody businesses, expected to exceed $50 billion in management scale by the end of Q2 2025.
In regulatory personnel, crypto-friendly Paul S. Atkins taking over as SEC chairman, the new leadership is promoting adjustments to the Howey test standard, reducing the proportion of tokens deemed as securities and expanding the range of ETF applicable assets. This series of reforms releases more potential growth space for the crypto market.
A wave of crypto enterprise capitalization is surging, with top crypto enterprises like Kraken and Fireblocks preparing for listing, with valuations reaching around $20 billion and $9 billion respectively. Simultaneously, multiple top Wall Street investment banks have established crypto investment departments, and sovereign funds are indirectly laying out Bitcoin by increasing strategic tech company stock holdings.
The US is also brewing a federal Bitcoin reserve plan, proposing to purchase no more than 200,000 bitcoins annually over the next five years, establishing a distributed secure storage network as a long-term national strategic asset. Although funding sources still face legislative and fiscal challenges, related discussions have brought Bitcoin into the forefront of national asset management topics.
Stablecoin legislation is also accelerating. In early 2025, Trump signed an executive order encouraging the development of compliant US dollar-backed stablecoins while prohibiting central bank digital currency (CBDC) research to protect market freedom and personal privacy. Rapid legislation of related bills will accelerate the integration of traditional financial systems and crypto markets, paving the way for compliant stablecoin issuance and application.
Based on the above background, HTX Ventures analyzed key US economic indicators. From a macro perspective, inflation data is controllable, but the economy has not shown obvious recession signs. Non-farm employment and unemployment rate indicators show economic resilience, expecting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts only after significant economic downward pressure emerges. Before rate cuts arrive, due to liquidity tightening, US stocks and crypto markets still face periodic volatility risks.
The passage of the "Beautiful Big Bill" budget resolution will continue the 2017 tax reduction policy and add new tax benefits for the service industry and middle-to-low-income groups. Simultaneously, raising the federal debt ceiling and fiscal expenditure adjustments mean that future US fiscal policies will remain continuously loose, potentially injecting more liquidity into capital markets.
Overall, the crypto industry is playing an increasingly important role in global macro gaming. Policy dividends, dollarization trends, and institutionalization processes constitute the three pillars of this cycle. In future development, crypto asset market performance will be more closely intertwined with global macro environments, geopolitics, and monetary policy dynamics, presenting new cycle characteristics and investment opportunities. Meanwhile, as policies continue to relax, it will undoubtedly give birth to truly intrinsic blockchain innovation narratives, injecting unprecedented vitality into the industry.
In this wave of transformation, HTX Ventures will continue to insight global macro trends, explore potential opportunities, firmly support the compliance and innovative development of the crypto industry, and help build a more open, transparent, and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.
About HTX Ventures
HTX Ventures is the global investment department of HTX, integrating investment, incubation, and research to identify the world's most excellent and smartest teams. As an industry pioneer, HTX Ventures has over 11 years of blockchain construction experience, excelling at identifying cutting-edge technologies and emerging business models in the field. To promote growth within the blockchain ecosystem, we provide comprehensive support to projects, including financing, resources, and strategic advice.
HTX Ventures currently supports over 300 projects across multiple blockchain domains, with some high-quality projects already trading on HTX. Additionally, as one of the most active FOF funds, HTX Ventures invests in 30 top global funds and collaborates with top global blockchain funds like Polychain, Dragonfly, Bankless, Gitcoin, Figment, Nomad, Animoca, and Hack VC to build the blockchain ecosystem. Visit us.
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