As the U.S. job market and consumer sentiment deteriorate, some market experts predict that Bitcoin (BTC) could return to an upward trajectory. Looking at past cases, when employment and consumption indicators show weakness, expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) economic stimulus tend to trigger a Bitcoin rally.
According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 29th, job openings in the U.S. in March were 7.2 million, falling short of the market expectation of 7.5 million. Additionally, the U.S. consumer confidence index declined for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since January 2021, indicating weakened consumer sentiment about the economy.
Market participants interpret these indicators as potential precursors to economic stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing. Some analysts forecast that if these economic indicators follow a similar pattern to past instances, Bitcoin could enter a rebound phase from mid-July, with a long-term prediction that Bitcoin prices could reach $140,000 (approximately 204.4 million won) by October next year.
Macro environment is considered one of the key variables in the cryptocurrency market. Particularly, the complex situation of weakening employment indicators and consumer contraction could promote monetary policy changes, potentially having a positive impact on the risk asset Bitcoin. However, experts advise observing whether this pattern will repeat as in the past.
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