Bitcoin closing the week just below $94,000 has brought an annual total profit of 53.61%.
Since the most recent halving event, the market has shifted from the excitement phase at the beginning of 2024 to a "mature trend" based on on-chain growth, rather than speculative fever.
Bitcoin researcher – Axel Adler Jr. points out that the actual year-over-year value, which measures the average price at which BTC last moved, increased by 61.82%, significantly outperforming the 8.98% year-over-year decline in MVRV (market value to realized value).
This indicates that long-term holders are increasing their cost basis faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the current cycle.
The negative MVRV suggests Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern typically preceding strong price increases.
The compressed value creates opportunities for the next price surge, with analysts eyeing a new peak above $110,000 if demand accelerates.
Similarly, Bitcoin's realized value by group shows speculative fees are gradually decreasing, as the cost basis of 1-month holders is 5% lower than the 6-month group.
The current market resembles past accumulation phases, with many signals suggesting only 5 to 6 weeks remain until the 180-day medium point, when momentum typically accelerates.
This price increase prediction closely matches the observation of Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's digital asset research director, that Bitcoin will reach a new record peak of $120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic US asset reallocation.
Kendrick notes that US Treasury premium fees are high, with BTC price correlations and daily trading patterns indicating investors are seeking non-US assets since President Donald Trump launched the trade war on April 2.
Bitcoin's funding rate has turned positive, signaling Long position dominance as traders bet on prices rising above $90,000.
Between April 24 and April 25, Bitcoin's funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions about a potential short squeeze that could push prices to $97,000.
However, market momentum shifted as the funding rate turned positive, which could lead to a long squeeze.
A long squeeze is a market event where a sudden price drop forces over-leveraged Long traders to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidation.
You can view BTC prices here.
Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should thoroughly research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment choices.
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