I. Regulatory Dividends: Global Policy Shift and Geopolitical Game
1. The Rise of the US "Crypto Utopia"
Policy Relaxation: The Trump administration promotes a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, abolishes SAB 121 clause restricting bank custody of crypto assets, and the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins proposes "guided regulation" to clarify token security attributes and explore compliance paths.
Institutional Entry: Bitcoin ETF managed assets exceed 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounts for 45%), with traditional financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan accelerating deployment, and CME launching Solana futures contracts to solidify pricing power.
Underlying Risks: US national debt exceeds $36 trillion, facing potential credit rating downgrade; a US debt crisis triggering liquidity tightening could cause a synchronized crypto market crash.
2. China's Defensive Strategy in Emerging Markets
Financial Security Threat: Former PBOC vice governor Chen Yulu points out that US dollar stablecoins and Bitcoin's global expansion squeeze RMB internationalization space, and DeFi regulatory arbitrage weakens domestic technological competitiveness.
Technology Standard Competition: The US dominates in ZKP and Layer 2 areas, the EU integrates regulation through the MiCA framework, and China faces pressure of blockchain companies migrating, needing to be wary of losing standard-setting rights.
3. Regulatory Arbitrage and Global Coordination
G20 Framework Game: Countries accelerate digital asset rule formulation, with the US attempting to incorporate cryptocurrencies into its financial hegemony system, while China counters US dollar dominance through digital RMB.
II. Technological Revolution: Layer Wars, AI Integration, and DePIN Rise
1. Ethereum Renaissance and Layer 2 Competition
Pectra Upgrade: Ethereum optimizes account abstraction, L2 compatibility, and staking mechanisms, aiming to reduce gas fees and enhance security, with staking rate expected to exceed 50% and TVL potentially reaching $300 billion.
Public Chain Landscape Divergence: Base chain (Coinback ecosystem) TVL breaks $40 billion, Solana achieves 100,000 TPS through Firedancer client, while Sui and HyperLiquid seize niche markets with modular architecture.
2. AI + Blockchain: From Tool to Autonomous Participant
On-chain AI Agents: NEAR co-founder predicts that by 2025, AI Agents will manage crypto wallets, execute trading strategies, and even become social platform KOLs, with VanEck data showing their number will exceed 1 million.
Technical Integration Bottleneck: High AI model training costs, algorithmic transparency disputes, and regulatory scrutiny may limit large-scale application.
3. DePIN: Decentralized Infrastructure Industrial Revolution
Breakthrough Cases: Hivemapper maps 30% of global roads through 150,000 contributors, with annual revenue exceeding $500 million; Filecoin Foundation promotes AI and DePIN integration to solve data storage and computing power bottlenecks.
III. Trillion-Dollar Fund Game: Institutions, Retail Investors, and Stablecoins Struggle
1. Institutional-Led "De-Retailization" Trend
Bitcoin ETF Suction Effect: BlackRock IBIT manages over $40 billion, with pension funds and sovereign wealth funds entering, promoting Bitcoin's "safe-haven asset" narrative, though 80% of holdings are still controlled by retail investors.
RWA Tokenization Explosion: Ondo Finance tokenizes US Treasury bonds worth $2.8 billion with 4.44% annual yield; Maple Finance issues $2.46 billion in loans, attracting Grayscale and Pantera.
2. Stablecoins: Payment Revolution and US Dollar Hegemony Tool
Market Scale Leap: Stablecoin market value reaches $193 billion, potentially exceeding $3 trillion in five years, reducing cross-border payment costs by 60%, but Tether's reserve transparency controversy remains a potential black swan.
Geopolitical Weaponization: The US consolidates global reserve status through dollar stablecoins, seizing Russian crypto assets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting digital financial hegemony threats.
Regulatory Crackdown Warning: US Congress discusses legislation to limit "political figure token issuance", which may trigger sector-wide collapse if passed.
IV. Future Path: Reshaping Industry Value Between Frenzy and Rationality
1. Investor Strategy: Balance of Defense and Offense
Core Allocation: Bitcoin (40%) + Ethereum (20%) + RWA Leaders (like ONDO, 20%), with long-term targets of $180,000 for Bitcoin and $8,000 for Ethereum.
Risk Hedging: Retain 30% stablecoins (USDC/DAI), purchase Bitcoin put options (strike price $75,000).
2. Industry Survival Rules
Escaping Policy Dependence: Trump's promise fulfillment rate is only 31%; need to shift from "regulatory arbitrage" to intrinsic technical value, such as DeFi protocols accessing traditional financial infrastructure.
Prioritize Technical Innovation: Ethereum Layer 2, AI agents, and DePIN implementation capabilities will determine long-term competitiveness, avoiding homogeneous public chain bubbles.
3. Global Landscape Prediction
US-China Confrontation Escalation: US crypto hegemony squeezes China's digital financial space, while China counters by promoting digital RMB and blockchain technology autonomy.
Technology Standard Competition: Underlying technologies like ZKP and Layer 2 become strategic high ground, with the EU's MiCA framework potentially creating new barriers.
