Weekly Review
This week from April 7th to April 14th, BTC reached a high near $86,100, a low close to $74,508, with a volatility range of approximately 15.56%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large volume of transactions around $80,000, which may provide some support or resistance.
• Analysis:
1. 60,000-68,000 approximately 1.51 million coins;
2. 76,000-89,000 approximately 1.72 million coins;
3. 90,000-100,000 approximately 1.99 million coins;
• 70% probability of not breaking below 70,000-75,000 in the short term;
• 80% probability of not breaking above 85,000-90,000 in the short term.
As long as the macro environment improves or a new market catalyst emerges, the ETF channel may become an important source of incremental funds at any time. Its existence itself enhances Bitcoin's maturity and long-term attractiveness as an asset class.
The Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio (ISSR) shows a clear cyclicality. Historically, sustained ISSR growth (orange line rising, blue area positive) often accompanies the accumulation phase of a bull market. The current plateau indicates that strong coin-hoarding momentum remains robust.
Divergence intensifies, rather than one-sided selling: Currently, both net inflows and net outflows coexist, which better reflects the divergence and complex operations among large players (whales).
• On one hand, some early profit-takers or whales concerned about the macro environment are transferring tokens to trading platforms during rebounds (net inflow), exerting selling pressure.
• On the other hand, some whales are actively withdrawing tokens from trading platforms during price pullbacks (net outflow), which is usually seen as a long-term bullish and hoarding behavior.
This state of divergence may continue for some time. Clarifying the medium-term trend requires observing which force becomes dominant: whether continuous net inflows suppress the price, or net outflows begin to dominate, indicating that large players are resuming large-scale accumulation. Of course, even with short-term selling, whales' accumulation (net outflow) at key support levels or when they perceive undervaluation is a crucial premise for the market to establish a bottom and launch the next major rally.
Outlook:
On-chain data portrays a picture of short-term volatility, medium-term criticality, and long-term structural optimism:
• Short-term: The market is in a digestion period, with ETF momentum weakening and large player behaviors diverging, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Prices may continue to oscillate or face pullback risks. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro environment and marginal improvements in on-chain supply and demand indicators.
• Medium-term: The market's ability to regain momentum depends on:
1. Whether the macro environment turns favorable (such as rate cuts being implemented);
2. Whether ETF fund flows can resume sustained net inflows;
3. Whether large players shift from divergence to net accumulation (continuous net outflows from trading platforms);
4. Whether illiquid whales begin to grow again;
5. Whether supply can further mature in the HODL wave, releasing pressure from short-term holders.
Therefore, although facing challenges and volatility in the short term, from a medium to long-term perspective, as long as the core on-chain structure (such as LTH holdings and supply maturity) remains unbroken, and new demand-driving factors (possibly from macro improvements, continued ETF adoption, or new market narratives) emerge, the crypto market (especially Bitcoin) still has the potential for continued growth.
Medium-term Exploration
• Whale comprehensive score
• Short-term profit percentage composite model
• VDD
• Price level structure analysis
• Network sentiment positivity
Whales have been broadly participating in the market and are currently an important holding group.
The short-term profit structure remains relatively healthy, without signs of excessive profitability in the existing environment (i.e., green selling pressure zone). The current issue may lie in the overall switching between positive and negative states. Relatively neutral, with the tense macro environment continuously defining the boundaries of market participants' choices.
It is currently a relatively cost-effective holding area. High-weight selling pressure remains constrained within a specified range. The deleveraging activity may become less frequent as the pricing model is gradually repaired within the market. This would be a relatively good holding position.
The short-term has gradually moved away from oversold levels (79,000), but the main issue in the current market is not selling pressure. Instead, it's the sustainability of purchasing power and the degree of liquidity recovery.
Network sentiment is oscillating between positive and negative. In the tense gaming environment, market participants as a whole may also be wavering. From a liquidity perspective, the overall consistency direction has not yet emerged.
Short-term Observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention trading ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer amount
• New and active addresses
• BTC platform net size
• ETH platform net size
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin platform net size
• Off-chain platform data
Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the red zone, with derivatives risk increasing.
After last week's rapid decline and subsequent rebound, the risk factor has again entered the red zone. As market sentiment has not fully recovered, this week is likely to experience "both long and short explosions" for derivatives.
The proportion and trading volume of put options have decreased, with put option proportion still remaining high.
Derivatives trading volume has fallen to a relatively low level, but the derivatives market this week is destined to be turbulent.
Option implied volatility has short-term rapid fluctuations. Sentiment state rating: Neutral
Last week, it was mentioned that if the orange line (panic selling) touches the stage peak again, it would be a relatively good buy-the-dips trading interval. This week, both panic and positive sentiments have fallen again, and even if a rebound occurs, the short-term space is expected to be limited.
New active addresses are at a medium-low level. Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Both BTC and ETH have significant outflows.
Currently, BTC has significant outflows.
Currently, ETH has significant outflows.
High-weight selling pressure has eased.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is slightly rebounding, with stablecoin purchasing power slightly increasing.
Global purchasing power has currently ended its outflow trend, transitioning to a very weak rebound state.
Stablecoin purchasing power has slightly increased.
Off-chain trading data rating: Buying intention at 75,000; selling intention at 90,000.
Buying intention around 70,000-75,000 price levels;
Selling intention around 90,000 price levels.
Buying intention around 70,000-75,000 price levels;
Selling intention around 90,000 price levels.
Buying intention around 76,000 price levels;
This Week's Summary:
News Summary:
The current market landscape is woven from severe macroeconomic uncertainty and structural progress within crypto assets. The U.S. economy is facing a tug-of-war between recession concerns (Fink's warning, expected rise in unemployment) and potential inflationary pressures (tariff impacts, previous inflation data), making the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy path highly uncertain and the core market focus. Significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market (Dimon's warning, recent sell-offs) and erratic tariff policies further erode market confidence in the economy and policies, driving up safe-haven assets (gold reaching record highs) and suppressing risk appetite.
Against this backdrop, while the crypto asset market is simultaneously under pressure, it demonstrates internal resilience: the U.S. regulatory environment is becoming clearer (structural bill, stablecoin bill advancing), institutional entry continues (BlackRock fund growth, MicroStrategy and others increasing holdings), simple indicators (on-chain data) hint at a potential bottom, and the stablecoin ecosystem remains active.
Looking ahead, the direction of crypto assets will highly depend on the evolution of the macroeconomic environment: if economic slowdown leads the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and release liquidity, while regulation continues to advance, the crypto market may benefit from a recovery in risk appetite and the potential "digital gold" narrative; conversely, if inflation remains stubborn or a severe recession leads to continued tightening or extreme risk aversion, the crypto market will face significant downside risks. Therefore, although the fundamentals of the crypto industry are improving, its performance in the short term will remain closely linked to the macroeconomic trend and Federal Reserve policies, with high market volatility expected to continue.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
1. The growth rate of non-liquid supply has significantly slowed recently, indicating that the marginal accumulation momentum of long-term whales has weakened at a high level;
2. Although the long-term holder base appears stable, the supply aging rate has slowed, and short-term holders account for a higher proportion, suggesting the market has entered a structural adjustment period;
3. Large fund flows on trading platforms show significant two-way tug-of-war, reflecting clear divergence and game-playing among large holders at current price levels;
4. The selling pressure from US Bitcoin spot ETF fund outflows has weakened, and recently even shows an unstable coexistence of inflows and outflows, indicating the simultaneous presence of selling and demand.
• Market Positioning:
Selling pressure and buying demand coexist.
The current market is at a critical stage of high-level consolidation, with bulls and bears fiercely competing around key price levels.
Therefore, the market may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with its future direction highly dependent on the clarification of macroeconomic signals and the emergence of new demand catalysts.
On-chain Medium-term Exploration:
1. Whales are an important market holding group.
2. Short-term profitability is healthy, with sentiment switching.
3. Current price levels offer high cost-effectiveness, with selling pressure contracting.
4. Currently deviating from oversold levels (79,000), purchasing power is waiting to be enhanced.
5. Market sentiment is volatile, with liquidity direction unclear.
• Market Positioning:
Hovering
The market has large group support, but is still hovering overall, with volatile sentiment. The judgment of relative oscillation aligns with the current tone.
On-chain Short-term Observation:
1. Risk coefficient is in the red zone, with increased derivatives risk.
2. New active addresses are at low to medium levels.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. Trading platforms show significant outflows for both BTC and ETH.
5. Global purchasing power is slightly rebounding, with stablecoin purchasing power slightly increasing.
6. Off-chain trading data shows buying interest at 75,000 and selling interest at 90,000.
7. 70% probability of not breaking below 70,000-75,000 in the short term; 80% probability of not breaking above 85,000-90,000 in the short term.
• Market Positioning:
For BTC, the short-term market is quite "calm", and even facing significant volatility, it has not produced genuine panic selling.
Short-term Expectations
This week, the derivatives market may experience significant volatility, and even if prices rebound, they will be suppressed by the cost line of short-term holders (92k).
Risk Warning:
The above are market discussions and explorations and do not provide investment-oriented advice; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
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