Bitcoin (BTC) has been showing severe price volatility since reaching a new high of $109,000 in the latter part of the first quarter of 2025. It dropped to its annual low of $74,500 in early second quarter but slightly rebounded this week.
According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant, despite Bitcoin's bull market from November 2024 to February 2025, the futures market sentiment did not show a continuous upward trend. The futures market sentiment index temporarily rose during the rally but subsequently turned downward, and this decline has continued since February 2025.
Currently, even with Bitcoin prices maintaining the $70,000-$80,000 range, the futures market investment sentiment is deteriorating. This is analyzed as a result of complex factors including macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory risks, and market adjustment concerns.
CryptoQuant pointed out that the sentiment index is currently moving around 0.4, approaching the key support line of 0.2 and facing the resistance line of 0.8. This suggests that the futures market investment sentiment is generally weak.
Reflexivity Research also shared a similar view, analyzing that the fear and greed index recorded 35 this week, indicating a cautious bearish sentiment. While moving past extreme fear, investors are still maintaining a cautious attitude due to macroeconomic concerns and recent market volatility.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin's recent rebound is based on improved fundamental strength and easing global tariff concerns. On-chain indicators such as Network Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) rising and exchange supply decreasing suggest a reduction in short-term selling pressure and support the upward trend.
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