The market, project, currency, and other information, views, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $82,379.98 and closed at $78,370.75, falling 4.87% for the week, with a volatility of 13.92% and a significantly increased trading volume. BTC price is running in a downward channel, approaching the upper edge of the channel and falling after being affected by the US market over the weekend, currently stabilizing near the annual line (365 days).
On April 2nd, the US President announced a "reciprocal tariff" clause that far exceeded expectations, shocking the world. Subsequently, the Chinese government announced countermeasures. The capital market was tense, with the US three major stock indexes falling sharply this week in response to the "reciprocal tariff" impact, and both long and short-term US bond yields significantly decreased.
The "reciprocal tariff" war overshadowed all other news, with the market busy selling assets and pricing downward for the unexpectedly high policy.
The global capital market is currently undergoing a severe adjustment and pricing process, with the biggest variable coming from the subsequent measures of the US President and the Federal Reserve.
Macroeconomic and Economic Data
On April 2nd, the US President signed an executive order at the White House, announcing the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on global trading partners, setting a 10% minimum benchmark tariff and imposing higher tax rates (such as 34%) on some countries (like China). The benchmark tariff will take effect from April 5th, with high tariff measures to be implemented from April 9th, 2025.
US Treasury Secretary Besant called for restraint in an interview and stated that this would be the upper limit if there were no countermeasures.
On April 3rd, China strongly retaliated, imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US, with the same effective date of April 9th.
Although most small economies have compromised, the EU and the UK are expected to continue to introduce some countermeasures.
Due to the significant surprise, the US three major stock indexes quickly plummeted on Thursday and Friday to price in this development. Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones fell 10.02%, 9.08%, and 7.86% for the week, respectively. Apple and Nvidia, directly affected by the "reciprocal tariffs", fell 13.55% and 14.01% for the week. The US stock market lost over $5 trillion in market value this week.
On April 4th, the US Department of Labor released March's non-farm employment data, with employment increasing by 228,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 to 140,000. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.1%. The Federal Reserve Chairman stated in a speech that the US economy remains strong and that tariffs will drag down the economy and inflation. His remarks can be described as very "hawkish".
Trump urged the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly on social media, and by the weekend, the Fed Watch board showed that as the US stock market plummeted, traders had increased the number of rate cuts this year to 4, with over 90% probability of a rate cut in June.
The reciprocal tariff conflict will continue, but the worst moments may be passing. The market needs to gradually confirm whether the pricing is sufficient and whether a worse situation will occur in the future.
More critically, whether "taxation promotes negotiation" exists and what the results of negotiations between the US and other countries will be.
Capital Flow
The crypto market saw a capital outflow of $333 million this week, with $178 million from the BTC Spot ETF channel and $108 million from stablecoins. The trend of net capital inflow for four consecutive weeks was broken.
Considering the violent fluctuations in the US stock market, this outflow scale is not severe, but there may be additional selling pressure, which should not be underestimated.
Selling Pressure and Sell-off
Accompanying the US stock market turbulence, market selling pressure slightly increased, with the on-chain inflow to exchanges reaching 188,614.7 coins. Short-term holders intensified selling, while long-term holders' selling slightly decreased compared to last week. According to eMerge Engine data, after three consecutive weeks of outflow, the CEX BTC holdings increased by 3,116.1 coins this week, indicating some accumulation of selling pressure.
Since late February, the short-term group has mostly been in a state of floating loss, with the recent floating loss ratio reaching 16%, recording the largest floating loss in this period. The short-term group is currently under enormous pressure, and the collapse of this group could lead to further price drops.
The long-term group continues to stabilize the market, increasing their holdings by 53,300 coins this week.
Unless the US stock market rebounds or the Federal Reserve introduces rate cuts or support measures, buying power will be difficult to significantly reverse, and the market will struggle to gain upward momentum.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.375, indicating that the market is in a mid-rise period.
EMC Labs
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment, it leverages industrial foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets for human benefit.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
