Amid the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is drawing attention by mentioning the potential strength of Bitcoin. On April 8th, through his social media, he analyzed that additional tariffs by President Trump could lead to a devaluation of the yuan, which could become a new catalyst for the Bitcoin (BTC) market due to capital outflow.
Hayes stated, "If China lowers the value of the yuan, its domestic capital can be dispersed into the cryptocurrency market" and "Such a trend already occurred in 2013 and 2015, and could be reproduced in 2025". He particularly argued that a 'weak yuan' is a realistic option, suggesting that the Chinese government responding to U.S. tariff increases through monetary policy rather than military or trade methods would be less shocking to the global market.
In fact, President Trump announced on the night of April 8th that he would apply cumulative tariffs of 104% on all Chinese products. This is a measure that has been progressively strengthened in addition to the existing tariff system against China, which has responded strongly by announcing 50% retaliatory tariffs. The mutual tariff full-scale war caused global stock market instability and cast uncertainty risks across risk asset markets, including Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that these tariff measures symbolize the collapse of the world economic system and geopolitical order, not just economic policy. He said, "The current global order is pressured by five major forces: excessive debt, productivity gaps, political polarization, value conflicts, and geopolitical tensions", analyzing that interactions between these could cause an unpredictable system collapse.
Dalio also emphasized that the financial imbalance between the U.S. and China must be structurally adjusted, warning against considering this trade conflict as merely a tariff policy. He added, "President Trump's tariff policy has meaning beyond short-term news", urging investors to pay attention to the direction of global order changes brought by these measures.
As the tariff war between the U.S. and China reignites and yuan devaluation is discussed, the cryptocurrency market stands at a major turning point. The analysis by Hayes and Dalio, coming from entirely different backgrounds, commonly concludes that Bitcoin is likely to be re-recognized as a new global risk hedging instrument.
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