Bybit co-founder Arthur Hayes pointed out the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) as key factors that could trigger the next Bitcoin (BTC) rally. He predicted that if the Fed does not adopt a monetary easing policy, the depreciation of the yuan could cause capital outflows and potentially flow into the Bitcoin market.
Hayes recently stated on X (formerly Twitter) that "Bitcoin ultimately depends on the central banks' choices," diagnosing that **monetary policy easing** or **capital flight demand** could lead to a cryptocurrency bull market. He cited examples from 2013 and 2015, noting that "whenever the yuan weakened in the past, Chinese capital tended to move to Bitcoin." These were representative periods when Chinese capital movement coincided with cryptocurrency price increases.
Recently, the yuan has been under downward pressure, breaking through the 7.20 level per dollar. On April 8, the People's Bank of China set the midpoint exchange rate at 7.2038, crossing the psychological threshold. Bloomberg interpreted this as a *signal of tolerating currency depreciation*. The Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund drew market attention by calling it the "start of yuan depreciation".
Bybit CEO Ben Zhou also supported Hayes' analysis, stating that "whenever the yuan falls, Chinese capital flows into BTC." However, some industry professionals point out that yuan weakness could also stimulate fund movement into gold or foreign currencies, leading to mixed assessments of its overall impact.
Hayes also revealed that he has been buying the dips whenever BTC experiences corrections. He maintained his buying stance even during last week's drop to $74,000, showing confidence in the long-term upward cycle. At the time, the market repeated sharp fluctuations due to Trump's additional tariff announcements, and returned to a downward trend after temporary tariff suspension rumors were denied.
As of the 8th, Bitcoin is trading around $79,000, up 4.2% in 24 hours. However, the cumulative return over the past month remains poor at -8.1%. The decline over the past 7 days was 5.3%, which is relatively stable compared to the 9% loss in the overall cryptocurrency market during the same period.
Hayes emphasized the need to pay attention to China's capital flows and central bank policies, which continue to be important variables in Bitcoin's potential rise. As the cryptocurrency market directly reflects geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic variables, such insights provide meaningful reference points for investors.
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