After experiencing a "Black Monday" in Asian stock and cryptocurrency markets yesterday, last night foreign media reported that the Trump administration might suspend reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, which momentarily stimulated a strong market rebound and pushed Bitcoin past $80,000.
However, the White House quickly denied this as fake news, causing market confidence to collapse instantly, with stocks and Bitcoin plummeting. Subsequently, US President Trump again issued a tough threat to China, stating that if China does not withdraw retaliatory tariffs (Beijing announced 34% retaliatory tariffs last night), the US will raise existing tariff rates to 50% on the 9th, once again triggering market turmoil.
Bitcoin Briefly Breaks $81,000 Before Falling Back
The cryptocurrency market was also affected by the Trump tariff suspension rumor last night. Bitcoin reached a high of $81,213 but quickly fell after the White House's clarification. However, as of 9:30 AM Taipei time on April 8th, Bitcoin was priced around $79,670, and Ethereum around $1,574, with the potential for continued rebound.
Overall, the current market trend still highlights the high uncertainty of the global economic environment, bringing significant pressure to risk markets. Investors undoubtedly need to be more cautious when assessing risks and opportunities, and closely monitor subsequent policy developments and economic data changes.
US Stocks Mixed, NVIDIA Rebounds
In the US stock market, Apple (AAPL-US) closed at $181.46, plunging 3.67%. The company's stock has fallen a cumulative 19% over the past three trading days, with market value evaporating nearly $64 billion. Market rumors suggest that to replenish inventory before potential tariffs on the 9th, Apple has launched an emergency logistics plan, using cargo planes to transport large quantities of iPhones and other products from India and China to the US.
NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $97.64, rebounding 3.53%. Bernstein analysts remain optimistic about NVIDIA, reaffirming an "outperform" rating with a $185 target price, expecting its AI server products might be exempt from the latest tariffs under the USMCA.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average was a major casualty, briefly plunging 1,703 points intraday and ultimately closing down 349.26 points, or 0.91%, at 37,965.6 points
- The S&P 500 Index fell 11.83 points, or 0.23%, to 5,062.25 points, having dropped over 10% in the past three trading days - the most severe decline since the market crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020
- Tech stocks showed resilience. With bottom-fishing buying, the Nasdaq Composite ultimately rose slightly by 15.48 points, or 0.1%, to 15,603.26 points
- Benefiting from strong semiconductor stock rebounds, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 97.29 points, or 2.70%, closing at 3,694.95 points
Fed Closed-Door Meeting Adds Uncertainty, Rate Cut Expectations Surge
Additionally, amid market unease over tariff news, the Fed unexpectedly held an unannounced closed-door board meeting last night. Although the specific discussion content and decisions are yet to be officially announced, this rare action at such a sensitive time undoubtedly intensified market tension and speculation.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, market traders now estimate the possibility of the Fed cutting rates as early as May has risen from 14% a week ago to 30.7%, reflecting strong market expectations that the Fed will adopt a more dovish stance to support the economy under the shadow of trade wars and potential economic slowdown.
EU Adopts 'Fight and Talk' Strategy, Proposes Zero-for-Zero Tariff
On the other hand, facing US tariff pressure, EU trade ministers from 27 countries reached a consensus at a meeting in Luxembourg to prioritize resolving trade disputes through negotiations. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that they have proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff negotiation to the US, which would involve mutually eliminating tariffs on industrial products.
However, the EU also clearly stated that they will not wait indefinitely. Sefcovic elaborated on the EU's three-point stance:
- First, acknowledge the importance of cooperation with the United States in strategic areas (such as addressing overcapacity in non-market economies, semiconductor competition, and critical raw material supply)
- Second, admit that negotiations with the US will be time-consuming and are currently only in the preliminary stages, as the US views tariffs as "corrective measures" rather than tactical tools
- Third, while seeking open negotiations, adopt a three-pronged strategy: defending interests through countermeasures, diversifying markets through new trade agreements, and preventing harmful trade diversion effects.
In terms of specific actions, regarding the previous tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by the United States, the EU plans to implement the first wave of retaliatory tariffs on April 15, with the relevant list submitted to member states for voting on the 9th. The second wave of countermeasure tariffs is scheduled to be launched on May 15.
The EU's current strategy is clearly "prioritize negotiations while fighting," and it is also actively seeking to diversify trade partners. Šefčovič specifically mentioned India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Gulf countries, urging acceleration of existing free trade agreement negotiations. The EU Commission President more vividly stated that the EU will "focus like a laser beam on 83% of global trade outside the United States".
Simultaneously, the EU is highly vigilant about trade diversion risks, especially the potential massive influx of Chinese products into the EU market due to US tariffs. Šefčovič recently visited China, with one key focus being addressing trade imbalances, overcapacity, market access, and Chinese investments in Europe.
