Here's the English translation:
Last week, the crypto market oscillated between regulatory easing and worsening macroeconomic data. Although the industry frequently released positive signals, including SEC ending multiple investigations, Japan approving compliant stablecoins, and institutions increasing Bitcoin positions, inflation data heating up, Trump's upcoming "reciprocal tariff" policy, and the sharp decline in US consumer confidence put pressure on overall risk assets.
Against the backdrop of mixed macro signals, market liquidity and trading enthusiasm remain low, with on-chain data also reflecting insufficient participation, and a lack of clear catalysts to drive prices in the short term. In the short term, macro and regulatory signals are intertwined, and while the market is not lacking in positive news, momentum remains to be observed.
Regulatory Easing and Industry Expansion: Limited Market Confidence Recovery
As regulators show goodwill, US regulatory authorities have recently released consecutive positive signals. The SEC announced the withdrawal of lawsuits against Kraken and ConsenSys and ended the investigation into Crypto.com, while the US Treasury also lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, which the market interprets as a temporary easing of regulatory pressure. Meanwhile, Japan has approved USDC as the first compliant stablecoin, marking a gradually clarifying regulatory environment in the Asia-Pacific region.
Institutional adoption continues to expand. MicroStrategy again purchased nearly 7,000 Bit, with total holdings exceeding 214,000, demonstrating high corporate confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value. Retailer GameStop also announced the inclusion of Bitcoin in its balance sheet, further expanding Bitcoin's application as a corporate reserve tool.
Traditional financial institutions are also accelerating their layout. BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, launched the first global tokenized money market ETF and expanded its Bitcoin fund product line in Europe. Fidelity is reportedly planning to issue its own stablecoin, directly competing with Circle and Tether. Coinbase is said to be in talks to acquire Deribit, a mainstream options exchange, expanding its derivatives market layout.
Overall, regulatory relaxation and industry advancement provide medium-term structural support for the market, but without immediate capital inflow and price momentum, the positive effects are yet to take effect, and market confidence remains relatively limited. Nevertheless, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to loom. This week, the market focuses on rising US PCE inflation data, declining consumer confidence, and Trump's upcoming "reciprocal tariff" announcement, which intensifies concerns about trade war escalation. US stocks and crypto assets declined simultaneously, with Bitcoin price exploring down to $81,295 over the weekend, maintaining a oscillating trend for the second consecutive week.
However, positive signals have not yet translated into substantial capital momentum, with stablecoin inflows to exchanges remaining negative, institutional risk appetite lowering, and the market lacking clear catalysts. With Trump set to announce trade measures this week, and the upcoming US non-farm employment report and Fed Chair Powell's public speech, the market's short-term trend remains highly dependent on news and data.
Inflation Unabated, Funds Cautious: Market Momentum Slow to Emerge
Recent macroeconomic data continues to send warning signals to the market. The US February PCE year-on-year rate rose to 2.5%, higher than market expectations, strengthening concerns about "stubborn inflation". Simultaneously, the US March consumer confidence index unexpectedly dropped to 104.7, a five-month low, reflecting how high interest rates and living costs continue to erode consumer confidence. Fed Chair Powell is set to give a speech this Friday, with the market highly focused on his latest stance on rate cuts and inflation risks.
Another significant variable comes from Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy to be announced on April 2nd, with market concerns about rising trade war risks potentially affecting global supply chains and economic performance. Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 700 points, with Bitcoin simultaneously falling to $81,295, with risk assets clearly under pressure.
From a funding perspective, while total stablecoin supply slightly rebounded to $212.2 billion, net stablecoin inflows to exchanges remain negative, reflecting overall conservative funds. According to data, recent average daily net outflows reached -$1 billion, in stark contrast to the peak single-day inflow of $15.4 billion at the end of last year. Declining potential purchasing power, coupled with increasingly cautious market attitudes, leaves prices lacking upward momentum.
On-Chain and Technical Observations: Market Momentum Weakens, Long-Term Holders Remain Stable
Recent on-chain data shows that market activity and capital flow are simultaneously declining. Meanwhile, on-chain transaction numbers and average transaction fees have significantly dropped from their early-year peaks, reflecting a clear cooling of trading enthusiasm. Last week, the Fear and Greed Index oscillated between 30 and 44, remaining in the "neutral to fearful" range, indicating that investor confidence has not yet significantly recovered, and they are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards potential policy variables and macroeconomic uncertainties. According to CryptoQuant data, by the end of March, Bitcoin net inflows to exchanges turned negative, suggesting that short-term traders tend to wait or transfer to cold wallets for hedging.
Regarding long-term holders (LTH), their holding proportion remains stable at around 70%, demonstrating confidence in medium to long-term prices, while short-term trading enthusiasm has clearly declined. Simultaneously, on-chain transaction numbers and fees are lower than early-year levels, reflecting no signs of increased market participation.
Technically, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $81,000 and $85,000, with prices repeatedly testing and falling from upper resistance levels, indicating insufficient short-term momentum. The market is still waiting for confirmation of macroeconomic and capital-side positive signals before potentially determining the next directional movement, with the overall trend remaining primarily sideways.
Summary
Despite regulatory environments releasing positive signals, continued institutional additions, and the crypto industry's ongoing progress in infrastructure and product innovation, the cryptocurrency market remains short-term influenced by macroeconomic pressures and weakening capital dynamics, currently in a consolidation phase.
The market currently faces three key uncertainties: first, whether inflation will return to the Federal Reserve's tolerance range; second, whether Trump's trade policies might trigger a new round of geopolitical and economic conflicts; third, whether capital momentum can flow back into risk assets. The changes in these critical variables will profoundly impact Bitcoin and the overall crypto market's medium to short-term trends.
This week, Trump's trade policies, non-farm employment reports, and Powell's statements will be crucial to market direction. If inflation and employment data remain resilient, it might delay market expectations for rate cuts, leading to continued market hesitation. Conversely, if data weakens and policy attitudes become dovish, it could potentially release new upward momentum for the crypto market.
Investors should pay attention to the speed of policy implementation and market response gaps, avoid excessive chasing or premature over-leveraged positioning, and monitor on-chain activity and capital flow for potential structural improvements as auxiliary indicators of trend shifts. Short-term recommendations prioritize risk management, waiting for clear capital and policy signals before adjusting positions. If on-chain momentum and capital structure simultaneously improve, it will help stabilize market performance.
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