The 'MVRV Z-score', a BTC price evaluation indicator, has been attached... "The BTC downtrend signal has arrived"
Pointing out the decline in BTC market demand, whale wallet movements, and the net outflow of US BTC spot ETFs
"If BTC fails to defend $75,000, it could drop to $63,000"
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Cryptoquant's institutional insight report explained that BTC's 'MVRV Z-score' has decreased below the 365-day average, which is a signal that appears before a sharp correction or a long-term downtrend.
The MVRV Z-score measures how far the market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) of a specific asset deviates from its historical average. The fact that BTC's current market capitalization is higher than its realized value indicates that BTC is currently overvalued, and a BTC downtrend may be imminent.
Cryptoquant also pointed out the decrease in BTC market demand, whale wallet movements, and the net outflow of US BTC spot ETFs.
Cryptoquant said "BTC saw a decrease of about 103,000 last week, which is the largest drop since July 2024." It also explained that "the accumulation volume of large investors, or whale wallets, has decreased from 368,000 in January to 268,000." Cryptoquant emphasized that the slowdown in whale wallet movements is a signal of downside risk in the market.
Cryptoquant reported that while US BTC spot ETFs bought about 165,000 BTC in March last year, they sold about 200 BTC this year.
Cryptoquant researchers stated in the report that "BTC's key defense line on the chart is $75,000, and if this line is breached, BTC could drop to $63,000."
Reporter Kwon Seung-won ksw@blockstreet.co.kr
