Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 97.0%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.0%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 67.0%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 32.1%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.9%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 97.0%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.0%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 67.0%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 32.1%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.9%。（金十）

美国CPI公布前美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为97%

Odaily Odaily reports that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by May is 67.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 32.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9%. (Gold Ten)

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 97% before the release of US CPI

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tonight at 20:30. Economists forecast that after a significant increase in January, US inflation last month may still remain at a high level, further indicating that the Federal Reserve's progress in curbing prices has stalled. Cooler inflation data may strengthen traders' bets on the Fed's rate cuts, with the current money market expecting three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, a more dovish market expectation compared to the two rate cuts priced in a week ago. (Gold Ten)

Money markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year, and expectations have become more dovish

Odaily reports that the futures market is betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but if concerns about a trade war-induced economic recession intensify, the Federal Reserve may launch a series of rapid rate cuts in June. After US President Trump's speech on the "transitional period" of the economy over the weekend, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut rates when the economy slips, and the futures market is increasingly expecting consecutive rate cuts in June, July and October, leaving Federal Reserve officials facing a dilemma between rising inflation and economic weakness. US stocks and US Treasury yields also saw a sharp drop on Monday, as people are concerned that Trump's remarks portend an impending economic recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last Friday that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates, as the labor market remains strong and inflation is on an uneven path towards the 2% target, and there is great uncertainty about the impact of Trump's trade, fiscal, immigration and regulatory policies. Economists say these policies may push up prices and at least slow economic development in the short term. Goldman Sachs economists on Monday lowered their US economic growth forecast to 1.7% and raised their inflation forecast. (Jinshi)

Analysis: Traders bet on Fed to cut rates in a row amid recession

Odaily Odaily News reports that the seasonally adjusted US CPI monthly rate in February was 0.2%, expected to be 0.30%, and the previous value was 0.50%. (Gold Ten)