On March 7, 2025, the Trump administration achieved a historic institutional breakthrough with the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act". By incorporating the 200,000 BTC (6% of the circulating supply) seized through judicial procedures into a permanent non-sellable national reserve, the United States has implemented a supply-side reform of the Bitcoin market for the first time. This "zero-cost increase" mechanism cleverly avoids fiscal controversies, and its deeper value lies in: through institutional confirmation, Bitcoin is incorporated into the national financial infrastructure, laying the foundation for the monetary sovereignty game in the digital age.
At the White House Cryptocurrency Summit convened the next day, the Trump administration also announced the acceleration of the "Stablecoin Responsibility Act" legislative process, marking a new stage of systematic reconstruction of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory system. A new chapter has begun.
The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act Takes Effect: "National-Level Lock-Up"
On March 7, 2025, the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policy witnessed a historic breakthrough. The Trump administration officially signed the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act", designating the 200,000 BTC long accumulated and seized by the Department of Justice as national strategic reserve assets, and establishing a permanent non-sellable mechanism. Although the act did not directly expand the government's Bitcoin purchase scale, by freezing nearly 6% of the Bitcoin circulation, it can be considered a "national-level lock-up", substantially restructuring the market supply and demand pattern. From a medium to long-term perspective, the act strengthens the "digital gold" attribute of BTC through institutional confirmation, forming policy synergy with the "Bitcoin Tax Acceptance Act" first implemented in Texas, marking a critical transformation of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory paradigm.
The act's innovative "zero-cost increase" mechanism allows the continuous expansion of the reserve scale through compliant judicial procedures, avoiding the political controversies of traditional fiscal expenditures while reserving operational space for subsequent policy adjustments. It is worth noting that the "Bitcoin Tax Deduction Act" concurrently promoted by the state of Texas also demonstrates the state government's efforts to seize the discourse power of the cryptocurrency economy through institutional innovation. This regulatory coordination between the federal and state governments is driving the United States to rapidly build the world's first multi-level cryptocurrency asset regulatory system, laying the foundation for establishing a global cryptocurrency compliance center.
However, from the market's performance, the act was initially seen as a bearish factor due to the U.S. government's lack of direct Bitcoin purchases, causing Bitcoin's price to surge and then fall back. But the long-term bullish view soon emerged, leading to a significant rebound. The market's reaction priced it at $91,000. In fact, the market had already fully responded to the bullish factor when Trump previously announced the plan to make Bitcoin a national strategic reserve, and now it needs other major economies around the world to follow suit.
The implementation of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve policy may trigger a global chain reaction. If other major global economies follow suit and establish cryptocurrency strategic reserves, based on the elasticity theory model, this structural change will allow Bitcoin's value to be re-evaluated by at least 2-3 orders of magnitude, fundamentally reshaping the global cryptocurrency asset valuation system. (It should be noted that for smaller economies like El Salvador, the impact of adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve on its value range is already not significant, unless such cases become more concentrated and sustained.)
Further reflection reveals that the far-reaching impact of this act lies in the struggle for financial discourse power behind the strategic reserve policy. Historical experience shows that the United States has successfully dominated the pricing power of global commodities by establishing strategic oil and gold reserve systems. The current "export of the U.S. regulatory framework" trend in the Bitcoin market is essentially an extension of the struggle for monetary sovereignty in the digital age. For other countries, the establishment of cryptocurrency asset strategic reserves has gone beyond a simple economic decision, evolving into a strategic choice for national financial security in the digital economy era, which must be taken seriously.
Stablecoin Legislation and Integration with the Banking System: From "Speculation-Driven" to "Technology-Empowered"
The implementation of the Bitcoin strategic reserve policy has brought huge volatility to the market. But what the market was actually more eager for was the White House Cryptocurrency Summit on March 8. Reviewing the content of the summit, it was rather lackluster, but the Trump administration clearly advanced the legislative timetable of the "Stablecoin Responsibility Act" to be completed before the Congressional recess in August, bringing major industry opportunities for the integration of stablecoin legislation and the banking system.
Trump believes that the key to ending the "banking exclusion" of cryptocurrencies is to build a federal-level regulatory framework, especially focusing on regulating the reserve asset standards and institutional access qualifications for stablecoin issuance. This legislative process is four months longer than the initial "100-day legislation" plan proposed by the Senate. According to the legislative framework disclosed by the Treasury Department, the new law will establish a "federal charter + state license" dual-layer regulatory structure, mandating issuers to maintain 100% USD reserves and connect to a real-time audit system. This design incorporates the regulatory practice experience of the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), while achieving standardization through the Federal Reserve's federal review mechanism.
Licensed institutions are reshaping the power structure of the cryptocurrency market. The spot trading volume of compliant trading platforms has surged from 42% in 2024 to 79% in the second quarter of 2025, according to a special report by CoinMetrics. The weekly average net inflow of $4.7 billion is 12 times that of unlicensed platforms, and this gap is most evident in Circle's USDC stablecoin, whose 99.1% reserve compliance supports a daily trading volume of $500 billion, accounting for 68% of global cryptocurrency payments. When the HashKey Exchange's clearing system co-developed with Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank demonstrates an 80% efficiency improvement and 60% cost reduction, the technology moat of licensed players has become clearly visible.
The technological revolution in the banking system has become a new engine for industry growth. Cross-border payments have been compressed from the traditional blockchain's 10-60 minutes to within 3 seconds, with the settlement failure rate dropping from 2.3% to 0.07%, stemming from the integration with the Federal Reserve's real-time settlement system. A report from the Bank for International Settlements indicates that automated KYC systems have reduced single-client verification costs from $120 to $48, directly driving UBS's compliant wallet to gain 1.5 million new users in three months, 63% of whom are first-time cryptocurrency asset users. This efficiency leap is reshaping the behavior patterns of market participants, with the proportion of long-tail users with daily trading volumes below $100 rising from 12% to 29%.
The macroeconomic weight of cryptocurrency assets has entered a stage of qualitative change. The International Monetary Fund's modeling shows that every 10% growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization contributes 0.2 percentage points to U.S. GDP, a value with strategic significance in the context of a $38 trillion fiscal deficit. BlackRock's monitoring of the 25% increase in Bitcoin volatility strongly correlating with changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet exposes the cryptocurrency market as a new transmission medium for U.S. dollar liquidity. Deutsche Bank's forecast further quantifies this trend, projecting that by 2027, cryptocurrency assets will process 35% of global payment and settlement volumes and gain legal tender status in 17 major economies. When technology empowerment and regulatory frameworks form resonance, the endgame of this transformation will be the digital reconstruction of the global financial order.
The Interconnection Restructuring of Macroeconomics and the Cryptocurrency Market: U.S. Economy Holds the Key to Rises and Falls
The above situation appears to be generally bullish, but it does not mean that the cryptocurrency market can rise, as the cryptocurrency market is becoming deeply tied to the U.S. stock market. The interplay between the Trump administration's fiscal expansion policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is reshaping the pricing logic of cryptocurrencies. From the most intuitive perspective, since the Bitcoin ETF was officially approved, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and the S&P 500 index has become more pronounced. Bloomberg terminal data shows that the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.78 in Q2 2025. So the rises and falls of the cryptocurrency market are now closely related to the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy.
Here is the English translation:The Federal Reserve is trapped in a policy dilemma between "controlling inflation" and "fighting recession". The current US economy is facing the most typical stagflation dilemma since the 1970s, with the "high inflation + low growth" combination putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: if it continues to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, the interest cost of the $35 trillion debt stock will consume 17% of federal fiscal revenue (CBO estimate); if it turns to rate cuts to stimulate the economy, it may repeat the vicious inflation of the 1980s. Historically, in similar stagflation environments, the median three-month volatility of Circle has reached 86%.
The turbulence in the US economy will lead to a contraction in market liquidity. In a normal market environment, liquidity contraction will trigger arbitrage capital to enter the market to balance supply and demand. But in a state of policy uncertainty, this self-regulating mechanism may fail: traders, unable to predict the Federal Reserve's response function, are more inclined to hold cash and wait rather than actively market-make. When liquidity providers (such as market makers) collectively reduce their exposure, the market may fall into a "liquidity black hole" - price declines trigger more capital withdrawals, forming a vicious cycle.
Industry Outlook in the Global Landscape
The current policy shift in the US is triggering a global regulatory paradigm shift. The digital asset sovereign reserve model constructed by the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act" and the banking integration path established by the "Stablecoin Responsibility Act" provide replicable regulatory framework samples for the world. As G20 countries successively introduce cryptocurrency regulatory rules, the global market is evolving from the "regulatory arbitrage" stage to the "institutional competition" stage.
In the new era of intertwined digital economy and geopolitics, the reconstruction of the cryptocurrency regulatory framework has gone beyond the simple technical specification domain, evolving into an important dimension of national financial competitiveness. The current policy practice in the US shows that whoever can first build a regulatory system that balances innovation inclusiveness and risk prevention will occupy the strategic high ground in the global competition of the digital economy. For the global economies that are at a critical stage of digital transformation, this regulatory paradigm shift is both a challenge and a historic opportunity to reshape the international financial order.
However, the revolutionary development of the cryptocurrency market led by the US also makes the current cryptocurrency market volatility closely related to the US economy. While we are watching the US economy and observing the cryptocurrency market, we need to call for global participation in the construction of cryptocurrency market regulation, to avoid the US's monopolistic influence on the cryptocurrency market.
