[Weekly Briefing for the First Week of March] Experienced Trump, Investors Are Chilled by the ‘Back of the Head’

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It was a week of empty rhetoric. Bitcoin prices started the week with a sharp rise. US President Donald Trump announced that he would unveil details about Bitcoin being adopted as a strategic asset at the White House cryptocurrency summit scheduled for early morning on the 8th, causing the price to temporarily surge from $85,000 to $95,000.

President Trump also hinted at the possibility of Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Ethereum (ETH) becoming strategic assets on his Truth Social platform. The prices of these mentioned coins surged by as much as 50%, and the market, which had been in a downtrend until last week, immediately changed its mood.

However, in contrast to the mood in the cryptocurrency market, the US stock market was not doing well. This was because analyses suggested that the tariff policies focused on by the second Trump administration could harm the US economy rather than benefit it.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta presented a -2.8% growth rate for the first quarter of this year using the GDP NOW model on the 3rd (local time). The last time the US recorded such a level of contraction was around the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Upon this news, Bitcoin, which had risen to $95,000, plummeted back to around $82,000. Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA), which had risen along with Bitcoin, also saw declines of 10-20%. Although coin prices recovered after reports that Trump would also announce the creation of a Bitcoin reserve fund at the cryptocurrency summit, the stock market did not.

Trump: 'I won't sell Bitcoin, but I won't buy it either'

The one who poured cold water on the market full of expectations was President Trump. On the 7th, he issued an executive order for the US Department of Justice to hold onto the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins it had seized from criminals, rather than selling them.

The fact that Trump would not sell the Bitcoin was already known to all cryptocurrency investors. The problem was the additional purchase part. According to the executive order, the US federal government will not directly purchase Bitcoin with tax money.

The SOL, XRP, and ADA that Trump had hinted at potentially purchasing additional amounts of on social media were also excluded from the additional purchase targets. While their status as assets has been elevated compared to the past, there is no actual price advantage.

Trump gave the impression that the US government would actively purchase cryptocurrencies, but literally, he never said he would do so. Ultimately, the seasoned politician Trump faithfully kept his promise, but for investors who had bet on a rise in coin prices due to expectations of US government intervention, it was a backstab.

As disappointment selling poured in, Bitcoin's price fell from around $91,000 to $85,000 in less than an hour, with around $250 million worth of liquidations recorded in that range.

Although the price recovered somewhat due to expectations of additional comments at the summit, there were no further positive statements made at the actual meeting. Bitcoin, which recorded $86,000 at the close of the US market, gradually declined over the weekend due to the disappearance of the positive news and is currently fluctuating around $82,000 as of 2 AM on the 10th.

Deteriorating sentiment... Keep an eye on macroeconomic indicators this week

So was the White House cryptocurrency summit hosted by Trump just an 'empty rhetoric'? Not quite. While he did not make any price-related statements that cryptocurrency investors would be interested in, he emphasized that stablecoins will play a very crucial role in his future administration.

As all cryptocurrency investors know, stablecoins are designed to track the value of a specific fiat currency. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explained at the cryptocurrency summit that, as directed by President Trump, the US will continue to ensure that the US dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency, and stablecoins will be utilized for this purpose.

As briefly mentioned last week, the current primary use of stablecoins is as a token for purchasing cryptocurrencies. In other words, as stablecoins become more active, the cryptocurrency industry will experience an effect similar to a rate cut, with increased liquidity.

In relation to this, a vote on the Stablecoin GENIUS Act, a Republican-led bill in the US Senate, is scheduled for the 10th (local time) this week.

Regarding macroeconomics, the January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the US Department of Labor will be released at 11 PM on the 11th (Tuesday). The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced at 9:30 PM on the 12th (Wednesday), and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 9:30 PM on the 13th (Thursday). Additionally, the 5-year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan will be announced at 11 PM on the 14th (Friday).

Another important event to watch is the expiration of the temporary US federal government budget on the 14th. The Trump administration faces the risk of a government shutdown if Congress fails to pass the budget by March 14th.

The current Republican Party controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives, so they can handle the budget bill on their own, but the Republican members in the House are not united, so it is difficult to guarantee the passage of the bill. The market uncertainty has been maximized due to the tariff policy pushed by the Trump administration, so if the budget bill fails to pass, it could also act as a negative factor adding more uncertainty to the market. Well then, I wish all our readers successful investments this week.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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