Source: Bitpush
After experiencing a few days of dramatic volatility, risk assets saw a reversal overnight.
Bitpush data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC has rebounded from a daily low of $81,500 to over $88,000, a gain of nearly 10% intraday. Meanwhile, the three major stock indexes narrowed their declines, with the Nasdaq closing down 0.35%.
The "Tug-of-War" between Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Conditions
The recent market has been in a stalemate, with BTC rebounding from a low of $78,000 on February 21 to $95,000, then falling back to around $81,000, with the bulls and bears in a tug-of-war and the market direction unclear. Although Trump's "pro-crypto" stance temporarily boosted market confidence, its impact was ultimately short-lived and failed to reverse the overall market's weakness, and potential macroeconomic risks remain the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the market.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that the BTC market may continue to linger in a depressed state until there is a substantial improvement in the US market sentiment, as the uncertainty of regulatory policies, the complex and volatile macroeconomic environment, and the continued volatility of investor sentiment are intertwined factors that make it uncertain whether BTC can maintain its high-level operation in the long run. Before stronger market catalysts emerge, BTC may continue to fluctuate within a wide range, and investors need to closely monitor market trends and capture key signals.
After Losing the $90,000 Level, the Bulls Face Severe Challenges
Although the market has attempted to rebound several times, BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market are still under pressure and have not been able to establish a sustained upward trend effectively. Many analysts have warned that if the bulls want to reverse the downtrend, they must take action quickly, regain key positions, or BTC may face further downside risks.
However, Ki Young Ju believes that it may be premature to conclude that the bull market cycle has ended. CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that market on-chain activity is still relatively calm, and key indicators are neutral, indicating that although the market has been weak recently, the overall bull market pattern may not have been disrupted. In addition, the fundamentals of BTC remain solid, with more mining machines being deployed, reflecting the confidence of the market's major participants in BTC's long-term prospects.
Ju further pointed out that if this bull market cycle were to end now, this would probably not be the outcome desired by the market's major stakeholders, including early "whale" investors, large mining companies, traditional financial institutions, and US President Trump, who have publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. Retail investors are usually seen as the late entrants in the bull market cycle, and their market behavior may not be sufficient to dominate the market direction at this stage.
$85,000 Becomes a Key Liquidity Test, Will the Historical Cycle Repeat?
TradingView analysts believe that the key short-term support for BTC remains at $85,000, a level that has played a crucial role in the market tug-of-war in recent weeks.
If BTC continues to trade below $85,000 in the coming days, it may trigger a larger-scale market sell-off, with the concentrated release of selling pressure potentially leading to an accelerated price decline and further confirming the bearish sentiment, at which point BTC may face the risk of testing even lower support levels.
Quinten posted on the X platform: Looking back at history may provide some insights. In the previous bull market cycle, BTC experienced seven significant corrections, with magnitudes of -17%, -17%, -32%, -26%, -28%, -51%, and -25% respectively. Each correction triggered market panic, making people feel that the "bear market" had arrived, and whenever the price plummeted, the market was filled with the rhetoric of "Bitcoin is dead". However, history has proven that BTC ultimately broke through the resistance and continued to rise. Admittedly, history does not simply repeat itself, but it is often remarkably similar.
In summary, the $85,000 and $90,000 levels will become the focus of the short-term market tug-of-war between the bulls and bears, and investors need to closely monitor the performance of these two levels to assess the market's next direction.
According to analyst MasterAnanda, the current market trend is "interesting" and is releasing some key signals worth noting:
The bottom may have been found: Last week, BTC plummeted 28% from its all-time high of $109,000 to a low of $78,300, and then rebounded strongly, a "V-shaped reversal" pattern that is often seen as a signal of a temporary market bottom, suggesting a lower probability of further significant downside in the short term.
A healthy correction in the bull market: After a strong bull market rally, a certain degree of correction in the market is a normal phenomenon. This correction helps to release the accumulated profit-taking positions in the market and accumulate new upward momentum, and a healthy adjustment can lay the foundation for a longer-term bull market.
A "golden opportunity" to buy the dip: The current market correction has actually provided a rare opportunity for off-market capital to enter. If you missed the previous rally from $85,000 to $95,000, now may be a relatively low-level opportunity to position yourself. The market always has opportunities, and corrections are an important "accumulation phase" in the bull market cycle.
The long-term bull market trend remains unchanged: The long-term upward growth trend of BTC has not fundamentally changed. Based on historical patterns, BTC is expected to regain its upward momentum in the coming months and gradually move up, and according to previous analyst forecasts, BTC still has the potential to hit the $120,000 target price next month.
Technical indicators provide support: Observing the BTC daily chart, the 200-day moving average (MA200) is playing a key support role, and the MA200 has long been seen as one of the most important technical indicators for judging the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies. The current BTC price trend is forming higher lows, suggesting that the bullish trend may be further confirmed.
Market sentiment and capital accumulation: This cycle is not simply driven by US government policies or geopolitical events, but is also a manifestation of the cyclical rules of the market itself. BTC has prepared to enter a new growth phase and is expected to hit new highs again in 2025. In addition, there is still a large amount of capital waiting on the sidelines, and once the market stabilizes and rebounds, this capital is expected to accelerate its entry, further boosting the market uptrend.
In summary, BTC may have found a temporary bottom, and the market is entering a consolidation and accumulation phase. Although short-term market volatility is inevitable, the long-term bull market trend remains solid. Investors can seize the current correction opportunity to gradually position themselves at relatively low levels, be patient and wait for the market to ultimately choose its direction.
