Analysis: Polymarket's probability of the US-Canada trade war ending before May jumps to 70%, the crypto market may rebound on this news

Odaily reports that according to Polymarket data, there is a 70% probability that the US-Canada trade war will end before May. The Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, but Lutnick later hinted at the possibility of negotiations, which eased market sentiment and caused the relevant forecast probability to rise by 20% in the short term. Lutnick said that Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Canada and Mexico, rather than simply suspending tariffs. Affected by this news, the cryptocurrency market rose, with Bitcoin breaking through $87,000. (CoinDesk) Previously, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on Tuesday that the Trump administration could announce as early as tomorrow a path for tariff relief on goods from Mexico and Canada. Lutnick said in an interview with Fox that "Mexican and Canadian officials have been on the phone with me all day trying to show that they will do better, and the president is also listening, so I think he will reach some agreement with them, and this will not be like suspending tariffs or something, but I think Trump will compromise with them in some ways, and we will likely announce this tomorrow." Lutnick said the tariffs may be set at "some middle level", and Trump will make some concessions to Canada and Mexico, but will not completely back down.