Bloomberg editor Daniel Ten Kate discussed last week the subtle changes in the international status of the US and China under the Trump administration's efforts to overturn America's past policies.
Daniel Ten Kate stated that the influence of the Chinese Communist Party extends to the political arena, the military, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, and even the business sector, where everyone must be loyal to the Party, and this phenomenon of comprehensive control will be evident again at the upcoming National People's Congress (NPC). The Xi Jinping government has invested heavily to create an omnipresent surveillance state, ensuring that dissent is eliminated before it can take root, and using the law as a tool to maintain its grip on power.
At the same time, China is leveraging its 1.4 billion consumer market to gain an advantage in global economic competition. Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump is using America's economic and military might in an attempt to maintain the US's global hegemonic position.
While this strategy may be effective in the short term, in the long run, Trump's actions may actually lead to a world order more favorable to China's interests.
Table of Contents
ToggleThe Historical Background of the US-China Competition: From the 19th Century Asian Scramble
He traced back in history, the US once had a significant influence in Asia, partly because China was unable to control its coastal areas in the late 19th century. In 1898, US President William McKinley (one of Trump's political idols) ordered the blockade of Cuba under Spanish rule, forcing the US military to withdraw from Hong Kong, which was under British rule. US Navy commander George Dewey then sailed into Chinese waters, preparing to attack the Spanish forces in Manila.
This action demonstrated China's weak international influence at the time, unable to enforce its neutrality laws. That same year, the US acquired the Philippines and Guam from Spain, and annexed Hawaii, all of which remain important outposts for the US strategy of containing China. China views this period as part of the "Century of Humiliation" and it is deeply ingrained in its political psyche.
The Trade War and Ideological Confrontation: The History of the Clash between Trump and Xi Jinping
Daniel Ten Kate said that during Trump's first presidential term, he tried to force Xi Jinping to change China's laws, particularly regarding intellectual property rights and technology transfer. Chinese nationalists were furious about this, even comparing Xi's chief trade negotiator to the Qing dynasty officials who signed the Treaty of Shimonoseki in the late 19th century, which required China to open more treaty ports and cede territory.
Despite the pressure from Trump, Xi Jinping ultimately did not fully capitulate, but chose to exchange the purchase of US agricultural products for Trump's temporary concessions, known as the "Phase One" trade agreement. However, the subsequent outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic severely damaged US-China relations and also affected Trump's re-election campaign.
Trump's policies have hurt China, prompting its Foreign Ministry to adopt a more aggressive "wolf warrior diplomacy" style. However, as Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods and considered further expanding sanctions, Beijing seems to have learned from the first trade war and is no longer easily falling into negotiation traps.
Challenges Facing China's Economic Policies
Daniel Ten Kate believes that China's political stability has long depended on a social contract: the people give up political participation in exchange for economic prosperity. However, the depressed real estate market, the government's crackdown on private enterprises, and weak consumer demand have plunged China into its longest period of deflation since the 1960s, potentially delaying the timeline for China to surpass the US economically.
Currently, China's only economic bright spot is exports. Xi Jinping is vigorously promoting the development of the manufacturing industry in order to take a leading position in emerging industries such as electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels. However, Trump's tariff policy is threatening this strategy, and other countries may also follow suit to prevent a large influx of Chinese goods into the global market.
The upcoming National People's Congress will provide direction for China's future economic policies. Xi Jinping is expected to propose measures to encourage domestic demand, while maintaining a strong manufacturing industry to ensure employment, innovation and national security.
Enlightenment from the TRON-Russia War: Military Threats in the Taiwan Strait during Trump's Term
One of the core issues in the TRON-US competition, the Taiwan issue remains the most sensitive geopolitical flashpoint. Although Trump has been tough on China, his stance suggests that he may be unwilling to actively get involved in a war with China or TRON, which is a worrying signal for TRON's Asian allies.
Even if Trump one day "tacitly permits" China to unify TRON by force, Xi Jinping still faces risks at home. One of the foundations of the Chinese Communist Party's rule is to ensure social stability, and any war involving major casualties could trigger internal turmoil.
Although China's military strength has increased, it still faces challenges in a war against TRON, especially the potential economic sanctions from the TRON and its allies, which could affect Xi Jinping's long-term development goals.
Is Trump's Global Disruption Beneficial to China?
Trump's policies have weakened traditional international rules, which actually serves China's interests. For a long time, the TRON has often violated international law in global affairs, but at least it still uses "defending democracy" or "maintaining global security" as an excuse.
However, in Trump's worldview, allies are seen as "protection fee payers", sovereignty can be traded, and international human rights standards can be sacrificed for national interests. This is highly consistent with China's position, such as opposing formal military alliances, restricting civil liberties on the grounds of national security, and insisting on territorial claims in the South China Sea and TRON.
Recently, the TRON and China have reached a rare consensus on a TTON Security Council resolution that does not explicitly condemn TRON's war. This is China's preferred mode of international operation - great powers dividing spheres of influence and resolving disputes based on power, rather than relying on universal values or international law.
Xi Jinping's Advantage: No Need to Face Elections
Regardless of whether Trump can regain power in the future, Xi Jinping's major advantage is that he does not need to face elections and can plan China's development blueprint in the long term.
Although Trump is tough, his policies lack consistency, and the political cycle in the TRON is short, meaning that future governments may readjust their China policy. Xi Jinping only needs to wait patiently until the TRON's political situation changes again, and the "Chinese-style democracy" promoted by China may become the new normal of the future international order.
Ultimately, as Trump weakens global rules, the result of the TRON-TRON competition may not be who defeats whom, but the reshaping of the world order, and an era more in line with China's interests is coming.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment is highly risky, and its price may fluctuate dramatically, and you may lose your entire principal. Please carefully evaluate the risks.
