Author: WOO
The biggest feature of the crypto market since the beginning of this year is the lack of sustained growth, reflected not only in the exchange-traded Altcoins, but also in the on-chain tokens that performed well in Q4 2024, which are now facing a significant decline.
The following are the price changes of the main AI Agent tokens in 2025:
Virtual: -79.2%
Ai16z: -85.5%
AIXBT: -68%
Griffain: -80.3%
Buzz: -72.4%
Fartcoin: -67.5%
ARC: -62%
Swarms: -45%
It can be seen that within less than three months, the top projects in the current narrative have fallen by 80%. Although it cannot be directly judged that this track is false, the loss of attention is an objective fact, and it will not be able to regain it in the short term.
Now let's look at the celebrity token narrative, with Trump firing the first shot, followed by other celebrities, and even countries.
The following are the main celebrity tokens and their declines from their highs:
Trump: -77.1%
Melania: -91%
Vine: -92.7%
jailstool: -93.5%
Jellyjelly: -98%
CAR: -98.5%
Libra: -94.3%
In the crypto market, there is a saying "buy new, not old", which means that capital is willing to choose newer narratives for speculation. However, compared to the AI Agent track, the celebrity token track is clearly more bloodthirsty and cruel. What are the current problems in these two tracks? In the face of the scarcity of new narratives in the crypto market, is there a way to break through?
Reference: dexscreener
Current Narrative Dilemma: Rampant Speculation on Concepts
In the AI Agent track, many projects are still at the stage of "concept demonstration" and "future blueprint", lacking actual usable and scalable products. Even if several operable services have been launched in the market, there are still problems such as complex interfaces and poor user experience, making it difficult for ordinary investors to truly engage with them. Worse, project parties often use exaggerated narratives to cater to investors' expectations of "AI + blockchain", but the actual applications are repeatedly delayed. Over time, capital loses patience, and attention begins to shift, leading to a significant price decline of related tokens.
In the celebrity token sector, although Trump was a highly topical starting point, the problem is also quite evident when the crypto market encounters the "celebrity end effect": there is probably no other public figure in the world who can surpass Trump in terms of topic and influence. Subsequent politicians, internet celebrities, and stars have tried to follow suit, but they have been unable to replicate the initial capital enthusiasm and market sentiment. As the market's following weakens, the celebrity token track also presents a "fleeting" phenomenon of rapid rise and fall, and investor confidence is quickly lost, with prices naturally following suit.
However, the deeper problem behind these tracks falling into significant volatility is that many projects are still at the "concept speculation" level, lacking a real and sustainable revenue model. Whether it's the AI Agent or the celebrity token, their core narratives rely on capital and enthusiasm quickly entering the market, but lack the incentives to keep users engaged in the long term. When the enthusiasm fades, the price becomes difficult to support, and it is even more difficult to attract new capital to re-enter.
Seeking Real Yield Projects
To stand out in the current market with a lack of narratives, the key is to find products with "real yield" and are "willing to share with users". The so-called "real yield" is not just the speculative bubble of rising prices when listed on exchanges, but the ability to continuously generate returns through actual business models and trading activities, and feed back to token holders or ecosystem participants.
Hyperliquid fits this model, as its business is similar to that of a centralized exchange, with revenue mainly from contract trading fees. However, Hyperliquid returns 100% of the trading fees to repurchase the Hype token, and the trading fees are determined by the trading volume, so Hyperliquid has tightly bound the token price to the product.
According to data from defillama, Hyperliquid processes about 45% of the total 24-hour trading volume of all Perps DEXs, currently around $3.78B per day, with daily revenue of around $1 million. Even in the current market downturn, it maintains an extremely high level of activity, and thus the Hype token price has remained strong during the recent Altcoin winter.
No matter how hot the narrative is, it will eventually pass. The projects that can truly last in the crypto market are those with product-market fit and high user stickiness, with real yield.
