Sharing a short essay on the recent Consensus conference in Hong Kong:
1) Similar to previous conference runs, many people were running around the side events around the main venue. Combined with unfamiliarity with the HK map, the running around and dinner meetings left everyone's legs and feet exhausted, with physical fatigue beyond description. However, this is nothing, the mental exhaustion is even more tiring, with no end in sight.
2) Despite the overall environment, large and small events were still crowded with people, and the mood did not seem bearish at all. Perhaps most people came for the "emotional value". The Solana ecosystem seemed to be the star, with events consistently packed and even catching the attention of the authorities. In comparison, activities related to Ethereum, BTC layer2, etc. were much more gloomy. It seems that when one party finishes singing, the other party takes the stage; they too had their moments of glory in the past.
3) Although it was the Consensus conference, after interacting with many people, one feels that this was the least "consensual" Consensus conference? The "consensus" in the entire industry is being seriously torn apart. The technical narrative PVE consensus is dejected under the MEME narrative PVP consensus, the diamond-handed holder's consensus is too shy to speak up in the face of the young P-trader's consensus, the veteran technical build consensus is incompatible with the projects that stand out with marketing Tokenomics, etc. Seemingly a division of consensus, but underlying it is the collapse of the industry's "unified" values. After Consensus, Polarization may become the norm.
4) Many crypto veterans have reflected that "the market environment has changed". In fact, the market is never wrong, it's just that the "empiricism" of the old cabbage is no longer applicable. The old cabbage used the logic of the two-cycle bull-bear conversion to trade coins, but found that the four-year cycle conversion was invalid. The market defines the bull market around the hot narrative, coming like the wind and leaving without a trace. By the time you are still confidently claiming that the bull market has just begun, the bull market has already ended.
5) There's no need to complain that it has become more difficult to make money in the market. The truth is that the audience group making money has changed, and the mode and logic of making money has changed. Now there are countless market assets, and market attention (Mindshare) controls the flow of wealth. The young 00s P-traders who dare to rush in and out after making money have the energy and courage, becoming the lucky ones in this round of PVP narrative, while the old cabbage diamond-handed PVE mindset has no chance of winning. But every PVP wealth feast eventually has a massive outflow of liquidity, and it's unclear how long this squid game can last.
6) I can feel the melancholy of a group of technology narrative idealists and Builders. This sense of disappointment is different from the past. In the words of an old OG, the technical Roadmap has been implemented step by step, the TGE has been done as required, the community has also been maintained, and the narrative has been continuously updated to match the hot spots, but the coin price just won't rise. For those who are driven by idealism, if they can't get the corresponding rewards from the market in the long run, does it mean the exhaustion of innovative power? If the crypto world loses the idealistic hacker spirit, what spirit will the crypto industry use to counter the casino stigma from the outside world? Do we even need to pretend anymore?
7) The people in the AI Agent car have basically all been trapped, but most people still firmly believe in the future of the AI + Crypto narrative. I've always emphasized that, setting aside the short-term application value of AI Agent landing, the value of AI Agent in activating the overhaul of the old narratives like layer2, ZK, modularization, chain abstraction, etc. is the key. It can give the old narratives new build directions, and allow the unlanded infra to have the possibility of application prerequisites. In short, the sacrifices brought by the current AI Agent bubble burst are negligible compared to its future reconstruction value of the industry's big reshuffle.
8) The logic of the secondary market has completely changed. BTC stands alone in the sky with ETF off-exchange capital support, while ETH and SOL, BSC are fighting fiercely at the ecological level, but no matter how they fight, the market unanimously believes that there is no overall bull run, no altcoin season. The choice of locomotive determines the harvest, and if you choose the wrong one, the result will be embarrassing, for example, if you are unfortunate enough to be on the layer2 team.
9) The on-chain world has become the hope for most people in the crypto world, but compared to the difficulty of making money in the CEX secondary market, the pure PVP environment on the chain is also a huge challenge for the majority of the audience. After the chaotic and disorderly era, the on-chain world must achieve full-chain connectivity through asset issuance, community cohesion, CEX connection, and technical application landing. Obviously, a on-chain story without asset issuance threshold restrictions and continuous technical innovation empowerment cannot truly change the Crypto world.
