Author: Zuoye
Let the little whales fly, fly out a $TRUMP
We all see Trump and Milei as the international right-wing alliance, but the eating habits of those who issued coins earlier make this convertible alliance look quite abstract, "not like a ruler".
Later on Valentine's Day, Trump gave the world reciprocal tariffs, but obviously with a discount, even though they were supposed to take effect in April, he released the news in advance and let the parties negotiate the terms themselves, directly creating cards out of thin air.
Facing Milei's international fraud, no one had thought before that Trump would issue his own coin, so on Milei's side, people forgot the lesson of the one-day tour of the Central African President's celebrity coin, and it was because Milei was pushing liberalism that he had a large audience in the crypto circle, and in the end it turned out that the one who loves you hurts you the most.
Returning to the impact of DeepSeek, enterprises in China, the US and Europe are currently accessing it, and the hardest to collapse is the American capitalists calling on the US government to impose sanctions and blockades, which is actually very un-capitalist, closer to industrial policy, and the opposite of the heavenly net.
Although everyone didn't expect DS to launch an open source + low-cost technical blitzkrieg, because the stereotypical impression has always been that the domestic industry is not good at open source and original creation, only good at plagiarism and landing, but this time it has basically changed the existing impression, and instead OpenAI may be likely to choose the open source route under the influence.
Essentially, because the US has actually deindustrialized, only the high valuation of the financial industry maintains the international purchasing power of the US dollar, so that all the technologies and products ultimately have to become financial miracles to prove the superiority of the US.
From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, we can predict Trump's main moves in the next four years in advance, the direction of financialization is undoubtedly, re-industrialization is impossible, but the courage to make money in the name of re-industrialization is there, and very large.
Because DeepSeek has come, the AI narrative is bankrupt
In the DeepSeek incident, Trump first praised, then banned, and then praised again, performing a hat trick, but in the latest news from Bloomberg, the valuation of DeepSeek is between $1 billion and $155 billion, about half the valuation of OpenAI, which can become the Peng-Te system.
However, with US capital flocking in, highlighting the principle of who doesn't love free, DeepSeek will also seriously interfere with Trump's thinking, because Trump's reciprocal tariff policy is essentially a political weapon, not an economic means.
In Trump's cognition, because other countries can enjoy "most-favored-nation" treatment, the US needs to lower the tariffs on foreign products entering the US, but US products entering other countries will face higher tariffs.
But this is actually the inevitable consequence of the US choosing to build a financial country and internationalize the US dollar. If the US does not maintain a trade deficit position, other countries cannot obtain US dollars for transactions, and in view of this, combined with the latest statement of the Federal Reserve, we need to see Powell's expectation management of interest rate hikes and cuts for a considerable period of time, but in reality, it will be like the housing prices of East Asian countries, unable to rise or fall.
Returning to the subsequent price forecast of Web3, the following four basic cognitions need to be established, otherwise it will feel that Meme and BNB Chain are the future mainstream, but this is not the case at all:
- The US stock market needs to find a new support point, what the US stock market says, the crypto circle will say the same, the crypto circle has no independent market;
- The funds are now all in various ETFs, and the funds within the circle basically have no outflow, but the main reason is that there is no technical narrative support, pure Meme PVP cannot attract long-term funds to participate in the game;
- Next, look at the US stock market, ETF, DeepSeek response (new AI algorithms, embodied intelligence new directions, new directions in biotechnology), Ondo+ BlackRock, government, traditional finance or government on-chain
As Nvidia's market value returns to $3 trillion, the US stock market has basically emerged from the DeepSeek shock, GPT and Google have both released new products, but the market response is average, now although it has luckily passed, but the next step is to find a new hotspot to save the AI and computing power leverage valuation.
Overall, I still have a positive attitude towards the US stock market and the crypto circle, Musk is putting government information and funds on-chain, if it's on Ethereum or Solana, that would be a new super market, if he does his own alliance chain, then it's not that interesting.
Web3 will not fall because of Meme
Under the spillover effect of the DeepSeek shock, the Web3 AI Agent narrative has reached a stage of bankruptcy, and after the Meme PVP mechanism was drained of all liquidity by the triple blow of $TRUMP/MELANIA/LIBRA, it has now come to the boring second-hand time stage.
CZ still maintains influence over Binance, such as listing TST on Binance and criticizing Binance's listing policy, but after all, the flow has gone, under the regulation of the US Department of Justice, Binance, Labs and BNB Chain are completely separated, the process from investment, incubation to listing has been disrupted, I have always believed that the regulation of Binance is the real reason for the bankruptcy of the VC coin narrative, and at least it is the starting gesture to push the domino effect.
Binance has spent years incorporating the entire process of chip building and final distribution into its own, the strongest liquidity leading to the largest listing gains, the largest listing gains leading to projects willing to discount for Labs and BNB holders, this process constantly cycling, ultimately creating the strongest Web3 wealth group.
But now these conditions no longer exist:
- BN, BN Labs and BNB Chain are actually separated, BNB Chain and Labs projects cannot obtain more reliable listing commitments;
- The rise of DEX, BN main site and other CEX have the risk of becoming the only channel for token withdrawal, simply improving the listing process is not a fundamental solution;
- The hidden worry of VC coins is the stage bankruptcy of the technical narrative, and on the BNB Chain, which dominates Meme/DeSci/AI Agent, it is also difficult to maintain long-term effects.
However, there is no need to be particularly worried, the other benefits of Web3 have not, the robustness is as resilient as ever, the real shock next is that more Altcoin ETFs will be gradually approved after BTC/ETH, continuously absorbing the liquidity that should have entered the circle PVP, in the face of VC coins and Meme coins unable to maintain, the question is where the crypto circle will go.
That is to say, you can not do the current high FDV, low liquidity mode of VC coins, but also can not just play Meme honestly do Buidl, but need new ideas, from the lessons of the two crises in 2017/2021, Web3 will always find a new paradigm, it's just that anyone who has the mark of the past will be left behind.
Under the crisis of CEX represented by Binance, the opportunity of DEX has actually arrived, but the performance and controversy of Jupiter, although Solana is faster, it is indeed not as stable as the ETH ecosystem, and before February, the FUD sentiment towards ETH has reached its peak, and the change in the crypto circle is too fast, making people overly anxious, but in fact there is really no need.
Conclusion
Replacing the old with the new is the way of nature, in the face of uncertain macro policies, the continuous construction of DEX has already proven to us that what we once thought was a necessary and irreplaceable evil of CEX can indeed be challenged, this time it is not a technology-driven innovation like ETH ZK L2, but more of a combination of product thinking and existing technology, but the success of DeepSeek has proven that engineering progress is the necessary path for technological diffusion.
The old kings and nobles of BTC have flown into the homes of ordinary people.
