Author: Zuoye
Let the little whales fly, fly out a $TRUMP
Sharing the golden cup, the white blades do not spare, everyone sees Trump and Milei as the international right-wing alliance, but the eating habits of the coins issued one after another make this convertible alliance look quite abstract, "not like a ruler".
Later on Valentine's Day, Chuangbao sent the world an equivalent tariff, but obviously with a discount, even though it was supposed to take effect in April, the news was released in advance, waiting for the parties to negotiate the conditions themselves, directly creating cards out of thin air.
Faced with Milei's international fraud, no one had previously thought that Trump would issue his own coin, so on Milei's side, people forgot the lesson of the one-day tour of the Central African President's celebrity coin, but it was because Milei was pushing liberalism, and he had a large audience in the crypto circle, in the end, it turned out to be the one who loves you who hurts you the most.
Returning to the impact of DeepSeek, currently enterprises in China, the US and Europe are all accessing it, the hardest to collapse is the American capitalists calling on the US government to impose sanctions and bans, which is actually very un-capitalist, closer to industrial policy, and the opposite of the heavenly net.
Although no one had expected DS to launch an open source + low-cost technical blitzkrieg, because the stereotypical impression has always been that the domestic industry is not good at open source and original innovation, only good at plagiarism and implementation, but this time it has basically changed the existing impression, and instead OpenAI may be likely to choose the open source route under the influence.
Essentially, because the US has actually deindustrialized, only the high valuation of the financial industry maintains the international purchasing power of the US dollar, leading to the fact that all technologies and products will ultimately have to become financial miracles to prove the superiority of the US.
From DeepSeek to equivalent tariffs, we can predict in advance the main directions of Trump's next four years, the financialization is undoubtedly the general direction, re-industrialization is impossible, but the audacity to make money in the name of re-industrialization is there, and it is very large.
Because DeepSeek has come, the AI narrative has gone bankrupt
In the DeepSeek incident, Trump first praised, then banned, and then praised again, putting on a hat trick performance, but in the latest news from Bloomberg, the valuation of DeepSeek is estimated to be between $100 million and $155 billion, about half the valuation of OpenAI, which can become the Peng Te system.
However, with US capital flocking in, the principle of who doesn't love free will be highlighted, DeepSeek will also seriously interfere with Trump's thinking, because Trump's equivalent tariff policy is essentially a political weapon, not an economic means.
In Trump's cognition, since other countries can enjoy "most-favored-nation" treatment, the US needs to lower the tariffs on foreign products entering the US, but US products entering other countries will face higher tariffs.
But this is actually the inevitable consequence of the US choosing to build a financial country and internationalize the US dollar, if the US does not maintain a trade deficit position, other countries cannot obtain US dollars for transactions, in view of this, combined with the latest statement of the Federal Reserve, we need to see Powell's expectation management on interest rate hikes and cuts for a considerable period of time, but in reality, it will be like the housing prices of the Eastern powers, unable to rise or fall.
Returning to the subsequent price forecast of Web3, it is necessary to establish the following four basic understandings, otherwise it will feel that Meme and BNB Chain are the future mainstream, but this is not the case at all:
The US stock market needs to find a new support point, what the US stock market says, the crypto circle will say the same, the crypto circle has no independent market;
The funds are now all in various ETFs, and the funds within the circle basically have no outflow, but the main reason is that there is no technical narrative support, pure Meme PVP cannot attract long-term funds to participate in the game;
Next, look at the US stock market, ETFs, DeepSeek response (new AI algorithms, embodied intelligence new directions, new directions in biotechnology), Ondo+ BlackRock, government, traditional finance or government on-chain
With Nvidia's market value returning to $3 trillion, the US stock market has basically emerged from the DeepSeek shock, GPT and Google have both released new products, but the market response is flat, now although it has luckily passed, but the next step is to find a new hot spot to save the AI and computing power leverage valuation.
Overall, I still have a positive attitude towards the US stock market and the crypto circle, Musk is putting government information and funds on-chain, if it is on Ethereum or Solana, that will be a new super market, if he does his own alliance chain, then it won't be that interesting.
Web3 will not fall because of Meme
Under the spillover effect of the DeepSeek shock, the Web3 AI Agent narrative has reached a stage of bankruptcy, with the Meme PVP mechanism being drained of all liquidity by the triple blow of $TRUMP/MELANIA/LIBRA, it has now come to the boring second-hand time stage.
CZ still maintains influence over Binance, such as listing TST on Binance and criticizing Binance's listing policy, but after all, the flow has gone, under the regulation of the US Department of Justice, Binance, Labs and BNB Chain have been completely separated, the process from investment, incubation to listing has been disrupted, I have always believed that the regulation of Binance is the real reason for the bankruptcy of the VC coin narrative, at least it is the starting gesture to push the domino effect.
Binance has spent years incorporating the entire process of chip building and final distribution into its own system, the strongest liquidity leading to the largest listing gains, the largest listing gains leading to projects being willing to discount for Labs and BNB holders, this process has been constantly cycling, ultimately creating the strongest Web3 wealth group.
But now these conditions no longer exist:
BN, BN Labs and BNB Chain are in fact separated, BNB Chain and Labs projects cannot obtain more reliable listing commitments;
The rise of DEX, BN main site and other CEX have the risk of becoming the only channel for token withdrawal, simply improving the listing process is not a fundamental solution;
The hidden worry of VC coins is the stage bankruptcy of the technical narrative, on the BNB Chain that dominates Meme/DeSci/AI Agent, it is also difficult to maintain long-term effects.
However, there is no need to be particularly worried, the other benefits of Web3 have not, the robustness is as resilient as ever, the real shock next is that more Altcoin ETFs will gradually be approved after BTC/ETH, continuously absorbing the liquidity that should have entered the circle's PVP, in the current situation where VC coins and Meme coins cannot be maintained, the question of where the crypto circle will go is the big problem.
That is to say, you can not do the current high FDV, low liquidity mode of VC coins, but also can not simply play Meme, honestly do Buidl, but need new ideas, from the lessons of the two crises in 2017/2021, Web3 will always find a new paradigm, it's just that anyone who still has the mark of the past will be left behind.
Under the crisis of CEX represented by Binance, the opportunity for DEX has actually arrived, but the performance and controversy of Jupiter, although Solana is faster, it is indeed not as stable as the ETH ecosystem, and before February, the FUD sentiment towards ETH has already peaked, the extreme must be reversed, the speed of change in the crypto circle is too fast, making people overly anxious, but in fact there is really no need.
Conclusion
Discharging the old and taking in the new is the way of nature, in the face of uncertain macro policies, the continuous construction of DEX has already proven to us, what we once thought was a necessary and irreplaceable evil of CEX can indeed be challenged, this time it is not a technology-driven innovation like ETH ZK L2, but more of a combination of product thinking and existing technology, but the success of DeepSeek has proven that engineering progress is the necessary path for technological diffusion.
The old kings and nobles of BTC have flown into the common people's homes.
