火星财经消息, 有“美联储传声筒”之称的华尔街日报记者 Nick Timiraos 指出，并非所有月度 CPI 通胀报告都一样重要，在一个面临价格压力的经济体中，1 月 CPI 数据的影响更大。近年来，美国 1 月的价格上涨异常强劲，反映出年初价格的大幅调整。Timiraos 表示，将于本周公布的通胀报告可能显示，美联储压低通胀的努力是否扫清了一个关键障碍。Timiraos 强调，对美联储而言，这份数据利害关系重大。曾负责美联储价格和工资预测部门的 Alan Detmeister 表示，即使第一季度通胀数据没有再次给美联储当头一棒，关税上涨也可能让美联储官员有理由放慢降息步伐。“这可能会让他们在降低利率方面更加谨慎。”（金十）

<div>火星财经消息, 有“美联储传声筒”之称的华尔街日报记者 Nick Timiraos 指出，并非所有月度 CPI 通胀报告都一样重要，在一个面临价格压力的经济体中，1 月 CPI 数据的影响更大。近年来，美国 1 月的价格上涨异常强劲，反映出年初价格的大幅调整。Timiraos 表示，将于本周公布的通胀报告可能显示，美联储压低通胀的努力是否扫清了一个关键障碍。Timiraos 强调，对美联储而言，这份数据利害关系重大。曾负责美联储价格和工资预测部门的 Alan Detmeister 表示，即使第一季度通胀数据没有再次给美联储当头一棒，关税上涨也可能让美联储官员有理由放慢降息步伐。“这可能会让他们在降低利率方面更加谨慎。”（金十）</div>

美联储传声筒：今晚CPI至关重要，对美联储利害关系重大

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The news from Mars Finance indicates that Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," pointed out that not all monthly CPI inflation reports are equally important. In an economy facing price pressures, the impact of the January CPI data is greater. In recent years, price increases in the United States in January have been exceptionally strong, reflecting a significant adjustment in prices at the beginning of the year. Timiraos stated that the inflation report to be released this week may show whether the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower inflation have cleared a key obstacle. Timiraos emphasized that this data is of great importance to the Federal Reserve. Alan Detmeister, who was responsible for the Federal Reserve's price and wage forecasting department, said that even if the first-quarter inflation data does not hit the Federal Reserve again, the increase in tariffs may give Federal Reserve officials reason to slow the pace of rate cuts. "This may make them more cautious in lowering interest rates."

The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," pointed out that not all monthly CPI inflation reports are equally important, and in an economy facing price pressures, the January CPI data has a greater impact. In recent years, price increases in the United States in January have been unusually strong, reflecting a significant adjustment in prices at the beginning of the year. Timiraos said the inflation report to be released this week may show whether the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower inflation have cleared a key hurdle. Timiraos stressed that this data is of great importance to the Federal Reserve. Alan Detmeister, who was responsible for the Federal Reserve's price and wage forecasting department, said that even if the first-quarter inflation data did not hit the Federal Reserve again, the tariff hike could give Federal Reserve officials reason to slow the pace of rate cuts. "This may make them more cautious in lowering interest rates."

Fed mouthpiece: Tonight's CPI is crucial and has a lot at stake for the Fed

Odaily Odaily News reports that Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," pointed out that Federal Reserve officials are encouraged by recent inflation data, which shows that price pressures remain moderate, suggesting that inflation may soon be closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will begin his two-day congressional testimony on Tuesday, conveying a simple message to Congress: Given the strong economic conditions, the Federal Reserve can calmly decide when and whether to cut interest rates. At the last three meetings of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a full percentage point, after rates had remained at their highest levels in nearly two decades. Powell is prepared to tell members of the Senate Banking Committee in his speech that "since our policy stance is now much more accommodative than before, and the economy remains strong, we do not need to rush to adjust our policy stance." Powell defended last year's interest rate cuts, saying it was a necessary recalibration of its policy stance to address the improvement in inflation and the cooling of the labor market. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation declines to its 2% target faster than expected, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.

"Fed mouthpiece": The Fed will calmly decide when and whether to cut interest rates

Odaily reported that despite the ongoing tariff actions between the US, Canada, and Mexico, as well as against China and US steel and aluminum imports, the traditional financial (TradFi) market has not found a clear direction. Looking at multiple indicators, there are no signs of panic on Wall Street. The VIX index seems to be fixed at 16, indicating that market participants have already bought protection measures for further negative news. Powell's testimony in the Senate reiterated the Fed's "wait-and-see" stance, hinting that the pace of rate cuts in 2025 may be slower. Despite this hawkish stance, the US dollar index (DXY) has failed to rise. According to CFTC data, the market is inferred to hold a large long position in the US dollar. Interest rate differentials also indicate that the US dollar is overvalued relative to other currencies, which may explain why the DXY is struggling to gain momentum. Given that negative news may have been digested by the market, we believe the US dollar now faces greater downside risk. Any positive news could force large-scale unwinding of US dollar long positions, potentially driving a rally in risk assets. The release of tonight's CPI data may become a catalyst for a significant DXY decline. However, this rising tide may not benefit everyone. <BTC> continues to underperform stocks and gold, indicating some hesitation within the crypto community. Liquidity remains thin amid the many new listings each week, and last week's massive liquidations have caused heavy losses for many traders. For participants still holding crypto long positions, tracking institutional fund flows and buying downside protection may be the best strategy at the moment, especially as buying <DFI> put options is relatively cheap now.

QCP: Tonight's CPI could be the catalyst for a sharp drop in DXY

Odaily Odaily News reports that Richard Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve and current Global Economic Advisor at Pimco, has written an article reflecting on his experience during President Trump's first term from 2018-2019, and analyzing the challenges the Federal Reserve may face in 2025. While inflation expectations currently appear stable, tariff policies may underperform expectations and their uncertainty could pose a drag on economic growth, potentially leading to a significant downside surprise in inflation, which could impact monetary policy decisions. (Jinshi)